22 Oct 2023 | 05:13 PM UTC
Mexico: Tropical Storm Norma tracking north-northeastward across the southern Gulf of California early Oct. 22 /update 5
TS Norma tracking north-northeastward across the Gulf of California, Mexico, Oct. 22. Landfall forecast over Sinaloa State late Oct. 22.
Event
Tropical Storm Norma is tracking north-northeastward in the southern Gulf of California early Oct. 22, having passed over southern Baja California State Oct. 21. As of 09:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 135 km (85 miles) south-southwest of Los Mochis, Sinaloa State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain tropical storm strengths as it tracks northeastward and then east-northeastward in the Gulf of California Oct. 22, before making landfall south of Topolobampo in Sinaloa State very late Oct. 22. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly and transition into a tropical depression over northern Sinaloa State early Oct. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 22, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Warning: Santa Fe to San Evaristo and Huatabampito to Mazatlan.
Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within the tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur and are expected in the warning area along Mexico's west coast late Oct. 22. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) with localized maximums of up to 45 cm (18 inches) across southern Baja California Sur through Oct. 22 and across Sinaloa through Oct. 23. The threat from coastal flooding should gradually subside along the coast of Baja California Sur through Oct. 22. Coastal flooding is possible along the west coast of mainland Mexico within the tropical storm warning area. Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect Mexico's southwestern and west-central coast and Baja California Sur over the coming days. The swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Landslides are also possible in affected areas.
Some flooding and minor damage have been reported in parts of southern Baja California Sur State as of early Oct. 22, but no casualties or major disruptions have been confirmed; damage assessments are ongoing and it may take some time for the full extent of the storm's impact to be revealed. Los Cabos International Airport (SJD) and La Paz International Airport (LAP) in Baja California Sur are scheduled to reopen early Oct. 22. Los Mochis International Airport (LMM) and Culiacan International Airport (CUL) in Sinaloa State will close Oct. 22 due to the approach of the storm. Authorities in Sinaloa have also advised residents to avoid the state's beaches due to high tides expected ahead of the arrival of Norma.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
