21 Oct 2023 | 05:14 PM UTC
Mexico: Hurricane Norma approaching southern Baja California Sur State as of Oct. 21 /update 3
Hurricane Norma approaching southern Baja California Sur State, Mexico, early Oct. 21. Landfall forecast in the coming hours.
Event
Hurricane Norma has weakened into a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches southern Baja California Sur State, Mexico, early Oct. 21. As of 09:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 45 km (30 miles) west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane over southern Baja California Sur late afternoon Oct. 21. Norma is then likely to weaken further into a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward and then east-northeastward across the southern Baja California Sur and into the southern Gulf of California late Oct. 21-22. Norma is forecast to make another landfall near Atala in Sinaloa State early Oct. 23. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly and dissipate over far northwestern Durango State late Oct. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 21, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane Warning: Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.
Tropical Storm Warning: Baja California Sur north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo and north of Todos Santos to Santa Fe and Sinaloa State from Topolobampo south to Mazatlan.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Baja California Sur on Oct. 21, with tropical storm conditions currently occurring in the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas of Baja California Sur. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in the tropical storm warning areas of Sinaloa by early Oct. 22. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) with localized maximums up to 45 cm (18 inches) across far southern Baja California Sur through Oct. 22 and across much of Sinaloa through Oct. 23. A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Large and destructive waves near the coast will likely accompany the surge. Swells generated by Norma will continue to affect Mexico's southwestern and west-central coast and Baja California Sur over the coming days. The swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Los Cabos International Airport (SJD) in San Jose del Cabo, Baja California Sur, is closed through at least noon Oct. 22. Maritime authorities have closed the ports of La Cruz de Huanacaxtle and San Blas in Nayarit State, Barra de Navidad in Jalisco State, and Manzanillo in Colima State to smaller vessels. Authorities closed schools in Los Cabos and La Paz municipalities in Baja California Sur State Oct. 20.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
