Preview WorldAware's intelligence-driven risk management solutions with our in-depth analysis of the Typhoon Mangkhut.
 

Typhoon Mangkhut Updates
 

Update 12: 9/17/18: Transport and utility disruptions reported in parts of south China Sept. 18 following passage of Typhoon Mangkhut. Lingering effects likely.
Update 11: 9/16/18: 
Mangkhut making landfall over Guangdong Province, China, late Sept. 16; storm to impact southern China, northern Vietnam. 
Update 10: 9/15/18: Mangkhut headed for second landfall in southern China Sept. 16 after striking northern Luzon, Philippines, early Sept. 15.
Update 9: 9/15/18: Mangkhut makes landfall in northern Luzon, Philippines, early Sept. 15. Second landfall likely in southern China, Sept. 16.
Update 8: 9/14/18: Mangkhut to make landfall in northern Luzon, Philippines, early Sept. 15. Second landfall likely in southern China, Sept. 16.
Update 7: 9/13/18: Rain and winds to increase in the Philippines as Typhoon Mangkhut approaches. Landfall likely in Isabela Province early Sept. 15.


Update 12: 
Transport and utility disruptions reported in parts of south China Sept. 18 following passage of Typhoon Mangkhut. Lingering effects likely.

The locations affected by this alert are: Hong Kong SAR; Macau SAR / Zhuhai; Guangzhou, Guangdong Province; Dongguan, Guangdong Province;  Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; Haikou, Hainan Province; Foshan, Guangdong Province; Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Zhuhai, Guangdong Province; Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province

  • Event: Mangkhut aftermath
  • Location: Southern China
  • Time Frame: Likely through at least Sept. 20
  • Impact: Lingering business and transport disruptions; utility outages

Click the image for an interactive map of the affected areas.

Summary
Lingering business and transport disruptions will likely continue in the coming days in parts of southern China following the passage of Typhoon Mangkhut. Mangkhut rapidly weakened after making landfall, though remnants of the system may continue to bring significant rainfall to parts of Guangxi and Yunnan. Mangkhut brought heavy rain, coastal surges, and dangerous winds to areas in its path Sept. 16-17, causing damage to buildings and infrastructure in parts of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macau, Hainan, and Guangxi. Mangkhut killed at least four people in the region.

As of Sept. 18, operations have resumed at all major regional airports. However, authorities delayed or canceled hundreds of flights at key airports Sept. 16, including those serving Hong Kong (HKG), Macau (MRM), Shenzhen (SZX) and Guangzhou (CAN). Lingering delays are possible as airports clear their backlogs of scheduled flights.

On Sept. 16, authorities suspended some scheduled regional inter-city trains, including high-speed services. Cancellations were centered in Guangzhou South Railway Station. Lingering disruptions may occur. Some roads remain blocked in the region due to downed trees and damage from coastal surges; however, most major highways were not significantly impacted by the storm. Bus, subway, and ferry disruptions were reported in parts of Hong Kong Sept. 17, prompting increased traffic congestion and long commutes.

Officials in most major cities in the Pearl River Delta and western Guangdong, including Guangzhou and Shenzhen, implemented a one-day public holiday Sept. 17. The government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region closed public schools Sept. 17 but did not grant a holiday. Although regional business disruptions are likely to ease starting Sept. 18, some lingering interruptions are possible.

As of late Sept. 17, tens of thousands of customers remained without power in parts of Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Macau. However, disruptions have been concentrated in relatively isolated areas. Advice Confirm all transport reservations before travel. Stockpile bottled water, and charge battery-powered devices in case of electricity outages. Plan for potential lingering shipping and business disruptions.

Advice
Confirm all transport reservations before travel. Stockpile bottled water, and charge battery-powered devices in case of electricity outages. Plan for potential lingering shipping and business disruptions.


Update 11: 
Mangkhut making landfall over Guangdong Province, China, late Sept. 16; storm to impact southern China, northern Vietnam.

The locations affected by this alert are: Hong Kong SAR; Macau SAR / Zhuhai; Hanoi; Guangzhou, Guangdong Province; Kunming, Yunnan Province;  Xiamen, Fujian Province; Dongguan, Guangdong Province; Kaohsiung; Taichung; Tainan; Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; Haiphong; Haikou, Hainan Province; Changsha, Hunan Province; Sanya, Hainan Province; Foshan, Guangdong Province; Shantou, Guangdong Province; Fuzhou, Fujian Province; Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Guiyang, Guizhou Province; Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Zhuhai, Guangdong Province; Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province; Jinjiang, Fujian Province

  • Event: Typhoon Mangkhut
  • Center of Circulation: South China Sea, approximately 100 km (62 miles) southwest of Hong Kong
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 kts (148 kph, 92 mph)
  • Landfall (Date): Guangdong Province, China (late Sept. 16)
  • Affected Areas: Southern China, northern Vietnam, southeastern Taiwan

Click the image for an interactive map of the storm's projected path. 

Summary
Typhoon Mangkhut is making landfall late Sept. 16 in Guangdong Province, between Yangjiang and Jiangmen. As of 1700 CST, the center of circulation was approximately 100 km (62 miles) southwest of Hong Kong. Mangkhut is currently a typhoon, but will weaken rapidly as it moves overland through Sept. 18.

Longer-range projections suggest that Mangkhut will track over China in a west-northwesterly direction, while continuing to weaken; however, the overall system is large, and its impact will continue to be felt despite weakening, through Sept. 18 at least. Some track and intensity forecast uncertainty remains, and additional shifts in the track and strength of the storm are likely as Mangkhut departs the South China Sea.

Weather Warnings
Weather warnings could remain active even after Mangkhut's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and Vietnam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) are all maintaining severe weather warnings and advisories in response to Typhoon Mangkhut. The CMA issued a red level typhoon warning for Guangdong and Hainan, and orange level rain warnings for Guangdong, Hainan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hong Kong, and Macau. The CWB issued an extremely heavy rain advisory for Taiwan's Hualien, Taitung and Pingtung counties, while heavy rain advisories are in place for parts of Yilan and Nantou counties, and Taichung and Kaohsiung cities. The HKO issued an amber rainfall warning, a hurricane signal number 10 warning (the most severe level warning), and a landslip warning. These meteorological agencies will likely extend, rescind or update existing warnings as Mangkhut moves through the region.

Hazardous Weather - Taiwan
Typhoon Mangkhut generated torrential downpours over eastern and central parts of Taiwan, with isolated areas in Pingtung County receiving 100 cm (40 inches) of rain; however, much of the other impacted areas received 8-50 cm (3-20 inches). Rough seas and coastal flooding could also occur along the eastern- and southern-facing coast of Taiwan through early Sept. 18.

Hazardous Weather - Southern China/Northern Vietnam
Weather conditions in southern China, including in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, have deteriorated as Mangkhut passes. Torrential rain has occurred or will shortly occur in these areas, while forecast models indicate that conditions will worsen in Yunnan Province as the storm approaches late Sept. 17 to early Sept. 18. Although Mangkhut is currently at typhoon strength, it will weaken as it moves towards Yunnan Province.

Preliminary forecasts have suggested that widespread rainfall accumulations of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are possible in Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong, northern Hainan, southern Guangxi, and northern Vietnam through Sept. 18. Although the center of circulation will pass north of Vietnam, the country was impacted by Tropical Storm Barijat in recent days. This means that areas of southern China and northern Vietnam that are already saturated from the previous storm could face additional flooding and landslide hazards in the coming days. This amount of rainfall will almost certainly cause flash and areal flooding in the region; urban flooding is likely, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Sites downstream of large reservoirs or rivers could be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides pose an additional threat in hilly or mountainous locations.

Low-lying coastal areas in Hong Kong, Macau, and Guangdong have been subject to evacuation orders; in Guangdong, authorities have evacuated two million people. Anticipate widespread power outages, downed trees, and scattered debris as the storm traverses southern China.

Transport
Significant ground, air, rail, and maritime transport disruptions are ongoing throughout southern China and are possible in northern Vietnam over the coming days. Floodwaters could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting ground travel in and around affected areas. Disruptions to rail transport, including underground networks, cannot be discounted during periods of severe inclement weather. High winds have already triggered flight disruptions, and are likely to trigger further disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports, including but not limited to those serving Haikou (HAK), Hong Kong (HKG), Nanning (NNG), Macau (MFM), Shenzhen (SZX), Kunming (KMG), and Hanoi (HAN).

Hazardous sea conditions have prompted the suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path, including in the Pearl River Delta region. Anticipate significant business disruptions in areas affected by severe inclement weather - authorities could order the temporary closure of local enterprises, schools, and non-essential government services in the event of hazardous conditions.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice
Monitor local and national media for updates on Mangkhut and related advisories. Prepare for the storm's arrival as early as possible; activate contingency plans if operating in areas where flooding and landslides are possible. Confirm all transport reservations before travel. Stockpile bottled water, and charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages. Plan for potential shipping delays.

Resources
JTWC Storm Track: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc
Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan): www.cwb.gov.tw
China Meteorological Administration (China): eng.nmc.cn
Hong Kong Observatory: www.hko.gov.hk
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Vietnam): www.nchmf.gov.vn


Update 10: 
Mangkhut headed for second landfall in southern China Sept. 16 after striking northern Luzon, Philippines, early Sept. 15.

The locations affected by this alert are: Hong Kong SAR; Macau SAR / Zhuhai; Taiwan; Metro Manila; Hanoi; Guangzhou, Guangdong Province; Xiamen, Fujian Province; Dongguan, Guangdong Province; Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; Subic Bay Freeport Zone (Olongapo City); Clark Freeport Zone (Angeles City); Baguio City; Haiphong; Haikou, Hainan Province; Legazpi City; Calamba City; Batangas City; Sanya, Hainan Province; Laoag City;  Foshan, Guangdong Province; Shantou, Guangdong Province; Fuzhou, Fujian Province; Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Masbate City; Naga City; Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Zhuhai, Guangdong Province; Jinjiang, Fujian Province

  • Event: Super Typhoon Mangkhut
  • Center of Circulation: South China Sea, approximately 483 km (300 miles) southeast of Hong Kong
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 kts (194 kph, 121 mph)
  • Landfalls (Dates): Northern Cagayan Province, Philippines (morning Sept. 15); second landfall possible in southwestern Guangdong Province, China (late Sept. 16)
  • Affected Areas: Northern and central Philippines; eastern Taiwan; southeastern China; northern Vietnam

Click the image for an interactive map of the storm's projected path. 

Summary
Super Typhoon Mangkhut - known locally in the Philippines as "Ompong" - made landfall early Sept. 15 just north of Baggao, Cagayan Province. As of 0300 PHT Sept. 16, the center of circulation was approximately 483 km (300 miles) southeast of Hong Kong. Mangkut weakened slightly after interacting with land in the Philippines, but current forecasts indicate that the system will strengthen again as it transits the South China Sea through Sept. 16.

Longer-range projections suggest that Mangkhut will make a second landfall as a typhoon in southwestern Guangdong Province, China, late Sept. 16, possibly just south of Maoming. Although the center of circulation is currently predicted to pass to the south of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau, the overall system is expected to be large, and adverse weather will likely begin in these areas during the morning of Sept. 16. Some track and intensity forecast uncertainty remains, and additional shifts in the landfall location and strength of the storm are likely as Mangkhut enters the South China Sea.

Weather Warnings
Weather warnings could remain active even after Mangkhut's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Despite the passing of the storm toward China, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) urged locals to remain vigilant - preferably indoors - as casualties and damage to infrastructure caused by landslides and other natural hazards are assessed, particularly in northern Luzon. Authorities report at least 12 deaths in Baguio, Benguet Province, and major structural damage in Tuguegarao, Cagayan Province's capital.

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) are all maintaining severe weather warnings and advisories in response to Super Typhoon Mangkhut. The CMA issued an orange level typhoon warning for Hainan and Guangdong provinces; an Extremely Heavy Rain Advisory is in effect for Taiwan's eastern and southeastern coastal counties. These meteorological agencies will likely issue new warnings or update existing alerts as the system draws closer and its potential impact becomes more apparent.

Hazardous Weather - Philippines/Taiwan
Typhoon Mangkhut generated torrential downpours of over 25-50 cm (10-20 inches) in northern Luzon; lower accumulations were reported in parts of central Luzon, the Visayas, and the southeastern-facing coast of Taiwan. Significant storm surge and coastal flooding affected parts of Ilocos Sur/Norte, La Union Mountain Province, and Pangasinan provinces. Rough seas and coastal flooding could also occur along the eastern- and southern-facing coast of Taiwan through Sept. 16.

Hazardous Weather - Southern China/Vietnam
Weather conditions in southern China, including in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, are expected to deteriorate from early Sept. 16 as Mangkhut approaches. Forecast models indicate that the system will still be at typhoon strength, with peak wind gusts near the center of circulation of up to 215 kph (132 mph). The center of circulation is currently forecast to pass to the south of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau, making landfall in southwestern Guangdong Province late Sept. 16.

Typhoon Mangkhut could take a very similar track to Tropical Storm Barijat in the South China Sea. This means that areas of southern China that are already saturated from the previous storm could face additional flooding and landslide hazards in the coming days. Preliminary forecasts - which are subject to change prior to Mangkhut's approach - suggest that widespread rainfall accumulations of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are possible in Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong, northern Hainan, southern Guangxi, and northern Vietnam through Sept. 17.

This amount of rainfall will almost certainly cause flash and areal flooding in the region; urban flooding is likely, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Sites downstream of large reservoirs or rivers could be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides pose an additional threat in hilly or mountainous locations.

Storm surge inundation is also highly likely in Hong Kong and into the Pearl River Delta as the typhoon transits to the south. Low-lying coastal areas could be evacuated; officials in Hong Kong have already begun issuing evacuation orders in the flood-prone Tai O region. Chinese authorities evacuated more than 100,000 residents and tourists in Guangdong Province. Wind gusts in excess of 140 kph (85 mph) are possible in the rain bands that impact the Pearl River Delta region Sept. 16-17; anticipate widespread power outages, downed trees, and scattered debris during the height of the storm.

Transport
Anticipate significant ground, air, rail, and maritime transport disruptions throughout the northern Philippines and into southern China and northern Vietnam over the coming days. Floodwaters could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting ground travel in and around affected areas. Disruptions to rail transport, including underground networks, cannot be discounted during periods of severe inclement weather. High winds locally or at flight points-of-origin are likely to trigger flight disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports, including but not limited to those serving Manila (MNL), Laoag (LAO), Haikou (HAK), Hong Kong (HKG), Nanning (NNG), Macau (MFM), Shenzhen (SZX).

Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path, especially in the Pearl River Delta region. Anticipate significant business disruptions in areas affected by severe inclement weather - authorities could order the temporary closure of local enterprises, schools, and non-essential government services in the event of hazardous conditions.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice
Monitor local and national media for updates on Mangkhut and related advisories. Prepare for the storm's arrival as early as possible; activate contingency plans if operating in areas where flooding and landslides are possible. Confirm all transport reservations before travel. Stockpile bottled water, and charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages. Plan for potential shipping delays.

Resources
JTWC Storm Track: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc
Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan): www.cwb.gov.tw
China Meteorological Administration (China): eng.nmc.cn
Hong Kong Observatory: www.hko.gov.hk
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Vietnam): www.nchmf.gov.vn
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA): bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph


Update 9:
Mangkhut makes landfall in northern Luzon, Philippines, early Sept. 15. Second landfall likely in southern China, Sept. 16.

The locations affected by this alert are: Hong Kong SAR; Macau SAR / Zhuha; Taiwan; Metro Manila; Hanoi; Guangzhou, Guangdong Province; Xiamen, Fujian Province; Dongguan, Guangdong Province; Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; Subic Bay Freeport Zone (Olongapo City); Clark Freeport Zone (Angeles City); Baguio City; Haiphong; Haikou, Hainan Province; Legazpi City; Calamba City; Batangas City; Sanya, Hainan Province; Laoag City; Foshan, Guangdong Province; Shantou, Guangdong Province; Fuzhou, Fujian Province; Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Masbate City; Naga City; Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Zhuhai, Guangdong Province; Jinjiang, Fujian Province 

  • Event: Super Typhoon Mangkhut
  • Center of Circulation: South China Sea, approximately 390 km (243 miles) north of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 140 kts (259 kph, 161 mph)
  • Landfalls (Dates): Northern Cagayan Province, Philippines (morning Sept. 15); second landfall possible in southwestern Guangdong Province, China (late Sept. 16)
  • Affected Areas: Northern and central Philippines; southern and eastern Taiwan; southeastern China; northern Vietnam

Click the image for an interactive map of the storm's projected path. 

Summary
Super Typhoon Mangkhut - known locally in the Philippines as "Ompong" - made landfall early Sept. 15 just north of Baggao, Cagayan Province. As of 0800 PHT, the center of circulation was approximately 390 km (243 miles) north of Manila, Philippines. The outer rain bands of the typhoon are producing adverse weather in the northern and central parts of the Philippines, especially in Luzon. Adverse weather is forecast to persist through at least the evening of Sept. 15 as the typhoon enters the South China Sea. Mangkut has weakened slightly as it interacts with land in the Philippines, but current forecasts indicate that the system will strengthen again as it transits the South China Sea through Sept. 16.

Longer-range projections suggest that Mangkhut will approach and make a second landfall as a typhoon in southwestern Guangdong Province, China, late Sept. 16, possibly just south of Maoming. Although the center of circulation is currently predicted to pass to the south of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau, the overall system is expected to be large, and adverse weather will likely begin in these areas by the morning of Sept. 16. Some track and intensity forecast uncertainty remains, and additional shifts in the landfall location and strength of the storm are likely as Mangkhut enters the South China Sea.

Weather Warnings
As of the morning of Sept. 15, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) maintains the following weather warnings:

  • Storm Signal No. 3 (Winds of 121-170 kph expected within 18 hours): Luzon (Cagayan including Babuyan Group of Islands, Batanes, Ilocos Sur/Norte, La Union Mountain Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Apayao, and Abra)
  • Storm Signal No. 2 (Winds of 61-120 kph expected within 24 hours): Luzon (Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Zambales, Quirino, Pampanga, and Bulacan)
  • Storm Signal No. 1 (Winds of 30-60 kph expected within 36 hours): Luzon (Bataan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Lubang Island, and Northern Quezon including Polillo Island)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) are all maintaining severe weather warnings and advisories in response to Super Typhoon Mangkhut. The CMA issued an orange level typhoon warning for Hainan and Guangdong provinces; an Extremely Heavy Rain Advisory is in effect for Taiwan's eastern and southeastern coastal counties. These meteorological agencies will likely issue new warnings or update existing alerts as the system draws closer and its potential impact becomes more apparent.

Weather warnings could remain active even after Mangkhut's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Weather - Philippines/Taiwan
Typhoon Mangkhut will continue to bring severe weather, including torrential rains and high winds, to northern and northwestern parts of the Philippines and southern and eastern Taiwan through Sept. 15 and possibly into early Sept. 16. The system is generating torrential downpours of over 25-50 cm (10-20 inches) in northern Luzon; lower accumulations are being reported in parts of central Luzon, the Visayas, and the southeastern-facing coast of Taiwan. Anticipate significant storm surge and coastal flooding in parts of Ilocos Sur/Norte, La Union Mountain Province, and Pangasinan provinces in the coming hours.

Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are likely. Rough seas and coastal flooding could also occur along the eastern- and southern-facing coast of Taiwan through at least Sept. 15. Damaging winds continue to pose a threat to northern Luzon, which will likely uproot trees and destroy poorly-built houses and infrastructure, though conditions are expected to improve by late Sept. 15.

Hazardous Weather - Southern China/Vietnam
Weather conditions in southern China, including in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, are expected to deteriorate from early Sept. 16 as Mangkhut approaches. Forecast models indicate that the system will still be at typhoon strength, with peak wind gusts near the center of circulation of up to 215 kph (132 mph). The center of circulation is currently forecast to pass to the south of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau, making landfall in southwestern Guangdong Province late Sept. 16.

Typhoon Mangkhut could take a very similar track to Tropical Storm Barijat in the South China Sea. This means that areas of southern China that are already saturated from the previous storm could face additional flooding and landslide hazards in the coming days. Preliminary forecasts - which are subject to change prior to Mangkhut's approach - suggest that widespread rainfall accumulations of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are possible in Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong, northern Hainan, southern Guangxi, and northern Vietnam through Sept. 17.

This amount of rainfall will almost certainly cause flash and areal flooding in the region; urban flooding is likely, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Sites downstream of large reservoirs or rivers could be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides pose an additional threat in hilly or mountainous locations.

Storm surge inundation is also highly likely in Hong Kong and into the Pearl River Delta as the typhoon transits to the south. Low-lying coastal areas could be evacuated; officials in Hong Kong have already begun issuing evacuation orders in the flood-prone Tai O region. Chinese authorities have evacuated more than 100,000 residents and tourists in Guangdong Province as of the morning of Sept. 15. Wind gusts in excess of 140 kph (85 mph) are possible in the rain bands that impact the Pearl River Delta region Sept. 16-17; anticipate widespread power outages, downed trees, and scattered debris during the height of the storm.

Transport
Anticipate significant ground, air, rail, and maritime transport disruptions throughout the northern Philippines and into southern China and northern Vietnam over the coming days. Floodwaters could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting ground travel in and around affected areas. Disruptions to rail transport, including underground networks, cannot be discounted during periods of severe inclement weather. High winds are likely to trigger flight disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports, including but not limited to those serving Manila (MNL), Laoag (LAO), Haikou (HAK), Hong Kong (HKG), Nanning (NNG), Macau (MFM), Shenzhen (SZX).

Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path, especially in the Pearl River Delta region. Anticipate significant business disruptions in areas affected by severe inclement weather - authorities could order the temporary closure of local enterprises, schools, and non-essential government services in the event of hazardous conditions.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice
Monitor local and national media for updates on Mangkhut and related advisories. Prepare for the storm's arrival as early as possible; activate contingency plans if operating in areas where flooding and landslides are possible. Confirm all transport reservations before travel. Stockpile bottled water, and charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages. Plan for potential shipping delays.

Resources
JTWC Storm Track: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc
Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan): www.cwb.gov.tw
China Meteorological Administration (China): eng.nmc.cn
Hong Kong Observatory: www.hko.gov.hk
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Vietnam): www.nchmf.gov.vn
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA): bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph


Update 8: 
Mangkhut to make landfall in northern Luzon, Philippines, early Sept. 15. Second landfall likely in southern China, Sept. 16.

The locations affected by this alert are: Hong Kong SAR; Macau SAR / Zhuhai; Taiwan; Metro Manila; Hanoi; Guangzhou, Guangdong Province; Xiamen, Fujian Province; Dongguan, Guangdong Province; Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; Subic Bay Freeport Zone (Olongapo City); Clark Freeport Zone (Angeles City); Baguio City; Haiphong; Haikou, Hainan Province; Legazpi City; Calamba City; Batangas City; Sanya, Hainan Province; Laoag City; Foshan, Guangdong Province; Shantou, Guangdong Province; Fuzhou, Fujian Province; Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Masbate City; Naga City; Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Zhuhai, Guangdong Province; Jinjiang, Fujian Province

  • Event: Super Typhoon Mangkhut
  • Center of Circulation: Philippine Sea, approximately 255 km (160 miles) east of Tuguegarao City, Philippines
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 kts (270 kph, 165 mph)
  • Projected Landfalls (Dates): Northern Cagayan Province, Philippines (early Sept. 15); second landfall possible in southwestern Guangdong Province, China (late Sept. 16)
  • Affected Areas: Northern and central Philippines; southern and eastern Taiwan; southeastern China; northern Vietnam (map)

Click the image for an interactive map of the storm's projected path. 

Summary
Super Typhoon Mangkhut - known locally in the Philippines as "Ompong" - continues to track toward northern Luzon late Sept. 14. As of 2000 PHT, the center of circulation was approximately 255 km (160 miles) east of Tuguegarao City, Philippines. The outer rain bands of the typhoon are producing adverse weather in the northern and central parts of the Philippines, and conditions will likely worsen overnight Sept. 14-15, especially in Luzon. Forecast models indicate that the center of the system will make landfall in northern Cagayan Province early Sept. 15 and quickly transit the country. By the evening of Sept. 15, the typhoon is expected to enter the South China Sea. Interaction with land in the Philippines will likely cause the system to weaken; however, additional slight strengthening is possible as the system transits the South China Sea through Sept. 16.

Longer-range projections suggest that Mangkhut will approach and make a second landfall as a typhoon in southwestern Guangdong Province, China, late Sept. 16. Although the center of circulation is currently predicted to pass to the south of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau, the overall system is expected to be large, and adverse weather will likely begin in these areas by the morning of Sept. 16. Some track and intensity forecast uncertainty remains, and additional shifts in the landfall location and strength of the storm are likely after Mangkhut traverses northern Luzon.

Weather Warnings
As of the evening of Sept. 14, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) maintains the following weather warnings:

  • Storm Signal No. 4 (Winds of 171-220 kph expected within at least 12 hours): Luzon (Cagayan, northern Isabela, Apayao, Abra)
  • Storm Signal No. 3 (Winds of 121-170 kph expected within 18 hours): Luzon (Batanes, Babuyan Islands, southern Isabela, Ilocos Norte and Sur, La Union, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Northern Aurora)
  • Storm Signal No. 2 (Winds of 61-120 kph expected within 24 hours): Luzon (Pangasinan, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, southern Aurora, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Northern Quezon)
  • Storm Signal No. 1 (Winds of 30-60 kph expected within 36 hours): Luzon (Bataan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Northern Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, Masbate, Marinduque, Camarines Norte and Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias and Ticao islands)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) are all maintaining severe weather warnings and advisories in response to Super Typhoon Mangkhut. These meteorological agencies will likely issue new warnings or update existing alerts as the system draws closer and its potential impact becomes more apparent.

Weather warnings could remain active even after Mangkhut's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Weather - Philippines/Taiwan
Typhoon Mangkhut will continue to bring severe weather, including torrential rains and high winds, to parts of the Philippines and southern and eastern Taiwan through Sept. 15 and possibly into early Sept. 16. The heaviest rainfall of over 25-50 cm (10-20 inches) is forecast to occur in northern Luzon; accumulations will probably be less in parts of central Luzon, the Visayas, and the eastern-facing coast of Taiwan. Anticipate significant storm surge and coastal flooding in parts of Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan provinces, especially near and to the north of where the center of circulation makes landfall.

Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are likely. Rough seas and coastal flooding could also occur along the eastern- and southern-facing coast of Taiwan through at least Sept. 15. Damaging winds will occur in northern Luzon, which will likely uproot trees and destroy poorly-built houses and infrastructure.

Hazardous Weather - Southern China/Vietnam
Weather conditions in southern China, including in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, are expected to deteriorate the early Sept. 16 as Typhoon Mangkhut approaches. Forecast models indicate that the system will still be at typhoon strength, with peak wind gusts near the center of circulation of up to 215 kph (132 mph). The center of circulation is currently forecast to pass to the south of Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau, making landfall in southwestern Guangdong Province late Sept. 16.

Typhoon Mangkhut could take a very similar track to Tropical Storm Barijat in the South China Sea. This means that areas of southern China that are already saturated from the previous storm could face additional flooding and landslide hazards in the coming days. Preliminary forecasts - which are subject to change prior to Mangkhut's approach - suggest that widespread rainfall accumulations of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are possible in Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong, northern Hainan, southern Guangxi, and northern Vietnam through Sept. 17.

This amount of rainfall will almost certainly cause flash and areal flooding in the region; urban flooding is likely, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Sites downstream of large reservoirs or rivers could be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides pose an additional threat in hilly or mountainous locations.

Storm surge inundation is also highly likely in Hong Kong and into the Pearl River Delta as the typhoon transits to the south. Low-lying coastal areas could be evacuated; officials in Hong Kong have already begun issuing evacuation orders in the flood-prone Tai O region. Wind gusts in excess of 140 kph (85 mph) are possible in the rain bands that impact the Pearl River Delta region Sept. 16-17; anticipate widespread power outages, downed trees, and scattered debris during the height of the storm.

Transport
Anticipate significant ground, air, rail, and maritime transport disruptions throughout the northern Philippines and into southern China and northern Vietnam over the coming days. Floodwaters could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting ground travel in and around affected areas. Disruptions to rail transport, including underground networks, cannot be discounted during periods of severe inclement weather. High winds are likely to trigger flight disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports, including but not limited to those serving Manila (MNL), Laoag (LAO), Haikou (HAK), Hong Kong (HKG), and Macau (MFM).

Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path, especially in the Pearl River Delta region. Anticipate significant business disruptions in areas affected by severe inclement weather - authorities could order the temporary closure of local enterprises, schools, and non-essential government services in the event of hazardous conditions.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice
Monitor local and national media for updates on Mangkhut and related advisories. Prepare for the storm's arrival as early as possible; activate contingency plans if operating in areas where flooding and landslides are possible. Confirm all transport reservations before travel. Stockpile bottled water, and charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages. Plan for potential shipping delays.

Resources
JTWC Storm Track: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc
Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan): www.cwb.gov.tw
China Meteorological Administration (China): eng.nmc.cn
Hong Kong Observatory: www.hko.gov.hk
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Vietnam): www.nchmf.gov.vn
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA): bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph


Update 7:
Rain and winds to increase in the Philippines as Typhoon Mangkhut approaches. Landfall likely in Isabela Province early Sept. 15.

The locations affected by this alert are: Hong Kong SAR; Macau SAR / Zhuhai; Taiwan; Metro Manila; Hanoi; Guangzhou, Guangdong Province; Xiamen, Fujian Province; Dongguan, Guangdong Province; Shenzhen, Guangdong Province; Subic Bay Freeport Zone (Olongapo City); Clark Freeport Zone (Angeles City); Baguio City; Haiphong; Haikou, Hainan Province; Legazpi City; Calamba City; Batangas City; Sanya, Hainan Province; Laoag City; Foshan, Guangdong Province; Shantou, Guangdong Province; Fuzhou, Fujian Province; Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Masbate City; Naga City; Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region; Liuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region;  Zhuhai, Guangdong Province; Jinjiang, Fujian Province

  • Event: Super Typhoon Mangkhut
  • Center of Circulation: Philippine Sea, approximately 705 km (440 miles) east of Manila, Philippines
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 150 kts (280 kph, 175 mph)
  • Projected Landfalls (Dates): Near Isabela Province, Philippines (early Sept. 15); second landfall possible in southwestern Guangdong Province, China (late Sept. 16-early Sept. 17); third landfall possible in northeastern Vietnam (Sept. 17)
  • Affected Areas: Northern and central Philippines; southeastern China; northern Vietnam; southern and eastern Taiwan

Summary
Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate in central and northern Philippines as Super Typhoon Mangkhut - known locally as 'Ompong' - approaches the country. As of 0500 PHT Sept. 14, the system's center of circulation was approximately 705 km (440 miles) east of Manila, Philippine. Mangkhut could continue to strengthen through the afternoon of Sept. 14 before starting a gradual weakening phase. Despite this weakening, forecast models continue to indicate that the system could make landfall as a dangerous super typhoon in northern parts of Luzon's Isabela Province early Sept. 15. The system is expected to quickly transit the northern Philippines on Sept. 15; though Mangkhut will weaken upon interaction with land, it is predicted to remain a typhoon as it enters the South China Sea the afternoon of Sept. 15.

Longer-range projections suggest that Mangkhut will undergo additional weakening before making a second landfall as a typhoon in southwestern Guangdong Province, China, around Sept. 16-17. A third landfall is possible in northeastern Vietnam around Sept. 17; however, significant uncertainty remains in the long-term forecast, and substantial changes to the projected track and intensity are possible in the coming days.

Weather Warnings
As of the morning of Sept. 14, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) maintains the following weather warnings:

  • Storm Signal No. 3 (Winds of 100-185 kph expected within at least 18 hours): Luzon (northern Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan)
  • Storm Signal No. 2 (Winds of 60-100 kph expected within 24 hours): Luzon (Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte and Sur Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, and Tarlac)
  • Storm Signal No. 1 (Winds of 30-60 kph expected within 36 hours): Luzon (Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Bulacan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Quezon, Northern Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, Masbate, Marinduque, Camarines Norte and Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias and Ticao Island); Visayas (Northern Samar)

The Central Weather Bureau (CWB), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), and National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) are all maintaining severe weather warnings and advisories in response to Super Typhoon Mangkhut. These meteorological agencies will likely issue new warnings or update existing alerts as the system draws closer and its potential impact becomes more apparent.

Weather warnings could remain active even after Mangkhut's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Weather
Typhoon Mangkhut will bring severe weather, including torrential rains and high winds, to parts of the Philippines and southern and eastern Taiwan Sept. 14-15. The heaviest rainfall of over 25-50 cm (10-20 inches) is forecast to occur in northern Luzon; accumulations will probably be less in parts of central Luzon, the Visayas, and the eastern-facing coast of Taiwan. Anticipate significant storm surge and coastal flooding in parts of Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan provinces, especially near and to the north of where the center of circulation makes landfall. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are likely. Rough seas and coastal flooding are also likely along the eastern- and southern-facing coast of Taiwan through at least Sept. 15. Damaging winds are likely in northern Luzon, which will likely uproot trees and destroy poorly-built houses and infrastructure.

Long-range models indicate that Typhoon Mangkhut could take a very similar track to Tropical Storm Barijat in the South China Sea. This means that areas of southern China that are already saturated from the previous storm could face additional flooding and landslide hazards in the coming days. Preliminary forecasts - which are subject to change prior to Mangkhut's approach - suggest that widespread rainfall accumulations of at least 13 cm (5 inches) are likely, with localized totals in excess of 30 cm (12 inches), in parts of Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong, northern Hainan, southern Guangxi, and northern Vietnam.

Torrential rainfall could cause flooding in low-lying communities near creeks, rivers, streams, or other bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream of large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Coastal flooding may occur during significant storm surges. Rain-induced landslides pose an additional threat in hilly or mountainous locations.

Transport 
Floodwaters may render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting ground travel in and around affected areas. Strong winds could down trees and spread debris, which could damage infrastructure (including power lines) or impede access to important thoroughfares. Disruptions to rail transport, including underground networks, cannot be discounted during periods of severe inclement weather. High winds are likely to trigger flight disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports, including but not limited to those serving Manila (MNL), Laoag (LAO), Haikou (HAK), Hong Kong (HKG), and Macau (MFM).

Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path. Anticipate significant business disruptions in areas affected by severe inclement weather - authorities may order the temporary closure of local enterprises, schools, and non-essential government services in the event of hazardous conditions.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice
Monitor local and national media for updates on Mangkhut and related advisories. Prepare for the storm's arrival as early as possible; activate contingency plans if operating in areas where flooding and landslides are possible. Confirm all transport reservations before travel. Stockpile bottled water, and charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages. Plan for potential shipping delays.

Resources
JTWC Storm Track: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc
Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan): www.cwb.gov.tw
China Meteorological Administration (China): eng.nmc.cn
Hong Kong Observatory: www.hko.gov.hk
National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Vietnam): www.nchmf.gov.vn
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA): bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph