The following Hurricane Dorian intelligence alerts were last updated September 10 at 1:53 p.m. EST.

WorldAware is tracking Hurricane Dorian in the Atlantic as it tracks towards the Bahamas and the United States. Make allowances for localized travel delals and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. If possible, ensure that critical business operations can failover to business units outside of the storm zone as needed. The proximity of the system's center of circulation to land will ultimately determine how significant the weather-related impacts will be to affected areas.

Recently, our weather risk management analyst completed a briefing on what’s unique about this hurricane season and what to expect as we head into the peak season. WorldAware's Director of Critical Operations also provided business continuity and preparation advice in the event of a hurricane.

  • Listen to the intelligence briefing as a podcast.
  • Watch the intelligence briefing as an on-demand webinar.

 

Navigate to each of the alert updates for Hurricane Dorian:

Sept 10: 1:53 p.m. EST | Warning AlertRecovery efforts and evacuations ongoing in the Bahamas due to severe damage by Hurricane Dorian Sept. 1-6.

Sept. 7: 6:00 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Dorian tracking near Halifax, N.S., Canada, Sept. 7. Landfall likely in Nova Scotia, Sept. 7, and Newfoundland, Sept. 8

Sept. 6: 8:19 a.m. EST | Critical AlertDorian tracking past coastal Carolinas, US, as Category 1 storm, Sept. 6. Close approach to New England likely late Sept. 6-7.

Sept. 5: 7:23 p.m. EST | Warning Alert | Dorian tracking past coastal South Carolina, US, as Category 2 storm, Sept. 5. Close approach to North Carolina likely Sept. 6.

Sept. 5: 7:24 a.m. EST | Critical AlertDorian tracking past coastal South Carolina, US, as Category 3 storm, Sept. 5. Close approach to North Carolina likely Sept. 5-6.

Sept. 4: 7:15 p.m. EST | Critical AlertDorian moving along the southeastern US coast as Category 2 storm, Sept. 4. Close approach to the Carolinas likely Sept. 5-6.

Sept. 4: 5:42 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Recovery efforts ongoing in the Bahamas and Florida, US, following major damage due to Hurricane Dorian, Sept. 1-4.

Sept. 4: 11:15 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian leaves catastrophic damage in parts of the Bahamas, Sept. 1-3. Prolonged recovery efforts likely.

Sept. 4: 7:44 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Dorian moving along the northeastern coast of Florida, US, as Category 2 storm, early Sept. 4. Close approach to Georgia likely.

Sept. 3: 8:48 p.m. EST | Critical AlertHurricane Dorian leaves catastrophic damage in parts of Bahamas, Sept. 1-3. Prolonged recovery efforts likely.

Sept. 3: 7:07 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Dorian moving slowly toward Florida East Coast as Category 2 storm, Sept. 3. Close approach to Southeast US coast likely.

Sept. 3: 7:28 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Dorian stationary over northern Bahamas as Category 3 storm, Sept. 3. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely mid-Sept. 3.

Sept. 2: 5:40 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Dorian sits stationary over northern Bahamas as Cat. 4 storm, Sept. 2. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely mid-Sept. 3.

Sept. 2: 7:37 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Dorian tracking over northern Bahamas as Category 5 storm, Sept. 2. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely late Sept. 2.

Sept. 1: 3:24 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Dorian makes landfall in northern Bahamas as Category 5 storm, Sept. 1. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely Sept. 2-3.

Sept. 1: 6:33 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian continues to track towards Bahamas and Florida, US, Sept. 1. Landfall likely in northern Bahamas, Sept. 1.

Aug. 31: 5:03 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian continues to track towards northwestern Bahamas and Florida, US, Aug. 31. Landfall likely in northern Bahamas, Sept. 1.

Aug. 31: 6:27 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian continues to track towards northwestern Bahamas and Florida, US, Aug. 31. Severe weather conditions are forecast.

Aug. 30: 5:49 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian intensifying as it tracks northwestward toward the Bahamas, Aug. 30. Landfall possible in Florida, US, Sept. 3.

Aug. 30: 12:43 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian intensifying as it tracks northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 30. Landfall likely in Florida, US, Sept. 3.

Aug. 30: 1:52 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian intensifying as it tracks northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 30. Landfall likely in Florida, US, Sept. 2.

Aug. 29: 12:28 p.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian tracking north of Puerto Rico Aug. 29. Landfall likely in Florida, US, Sept. 2.

Aug. 29: 12:19 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | Hurricane Dorian tracking northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 28. Landfall forecast in central Florida, US, Sept. 1.

Aug. 28: 7:34 a.m. EST | Critical Alert | TS Dorian continues to strengthen and set to impact Puerto Rico Aug. 28. Flooding and disruptions will almost certainly occur.

Aug. 27: 8:28 a.m. EST | Warning Alert | TS Dorian moving west near St. Lucia, early Aug. 27. Close approach to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic likely from Aug. 28.

Aug. 26: 2:19 p.m. EST |  Warning Alert | TS Dorian moving west toward the Lesser Antilles, Aug. 26. Close approach to Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent likely.


Sept. 10: 1:53 p.m. EST | Warning Alert
Recovery efforts and evacuations ongoing in the Bahamas due to severe damage by Hurricane Dorian Sept. 1-6.

 

Click to enlarge Google Map.

This alert began 09 Sep 2019 17:51 GMT and is scheduled to expire 13 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian aftermath
  • Location: Bahamas 
  • Time Frame: Indefinite
  • Impact: Severe business and transport disruptions; power outages; flooding; health concerns; evacuations

 

 

Summary

Prolonged cleanup and recovery efforts will likely continue over the coming weeks in the Bahamas following the recent passage of Hurricane Dorian. The system first made landfall over the Abaco Islands, Sept. 1, and subsequently on Grand Bahama Island Sept. 2 as a Category-5 hurricane with wind speeds of 295 kph (185 mph), leaving significant damage.

 

Response Efforts

Authorities in the Bahamas are mostly focusing on the hardest-hit areas of Abaco and Grand Bahama islands. Officials have confirmed 50 storm-related deaths in the Bahamas as of late Sept. 9, but they expect the number to increase considerably, as response and recovery efforts progress. Some communities could remain inaccessible for weeks. Damages are widespread, especially in the Abaco Islands and in the eastern part of Grand Bahama Island. Dozens of houses and small buildings have been destroyed. The Bahamian government is conducting a large-scale evacuation of the most severely affected areas. However, evacuations are not mandatory, and temporary housing will be built in Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island during the recovery efforts. As of Sept. 9, more than 4,800 people had been evacuated, mostly to the US and New Providence Island.

 

Transportation

Extensive damage to regional roads, bridges, and other transportation infrastructure is hampering recovery efforts in the Bahamas. It could take several weeks for authorities to fully assess the structural integrity of roads and bridges before traffic can resume in some areas. Floating debris along with destruction to marinas and jetties have rendered inter-island maritime transport extremely hazardous.

Air transport in the Bahamas continues to experience significant disruptions. While the four most affected airports, Grand Bahama International Airport (FPO) in Freeport, Leonard Thompson International Airport (MHH) in Marsh Harbour, Treasure Cay Airport (TCB), and Sandy Point Airport, have reopened, their operations are mostly limited to rescue and recovery operations. Some commercial flights have departed, but focused on the evacuation efforts. Normal commercial services are likely to be suspended or significantly disrupted for weeks. Disruptions at Lynden Pindling International Airport (NAS) in Nassau are likely, due to the large number of relief efforts using the facility as a forward operating base.


 

Utilities

As of Sept. 10, there are widespread power and water outages in the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island, and the outages are likely to continue until at least October. Some areas in Freeport were beginning to receive electric service Sept. 8. Authorities have not provided an estimate as to when service may be fully restored. It could take weeks for restoration crews to reach the most affected communities.

 

Health

Disease outbreaks remain possible in the coming days and weeks. Water outages are widespread in the most affected islands. A breach occurred at an oil terminal in East Grand Bahama during the storm; however, authorities confirmed there has not been any spill since, and currently there is no threat to public health in the area due to the oil. Backflow from drains that have mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become breeding grounds for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also pose significant health threats.

 

Advice

Seek updated information on road conditions before driving in affected areas; some roads could be closed for prolonged periods of time. Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistical disruptions in the Bahamas. Do not drive on flooded roads or past flood barriers. Avoid areas with widespread infrastructure damages.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellphones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.


Sept. 7: 6:00 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian tracking near Halifax, N.S., Canada, Sept. 7. Landfall likely in Nova Scotia, Sept. 7, and Newfoundland, Sept. 8.

Click to enlarge Google Map.

This alert began 07 Sep 2019 21:58 GMT and is scheduled to expire 09 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 80 km (50 miles) south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; 270 km (170 miles) east-northeast of Eastport, Maine, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 87 kts (155 kph, 100 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, eastern New Brunswick, Island of Newfoundland, St. Pierre and Miquelon, eastern Quebec 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian continues to track northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Nova Scotia, Sept. 7, and will make landfall there in the coming hours. As of 1700 EDT, the center of circulation was 80 km (50 miles) south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, and 270 km (170 miles) east-northeast of Eastport, Maine, US, with maximum sustained winds of 155 kph (100 mph).

Forecast models indicate that Dorian will continue moving northeastward, making landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia in the afternoon of Sept. 7, and will continue its trajectory after crossing Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The system is forecast to pass near Prince Edward Island, and make another landfall on the Island of Newfoundland, Sept. 8. After that, it is likely to turn east-northeast.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 1700 EDT Sept. 7, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in the US and Canada in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule; western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay
  • Hurricane Watch: Prince Edward Island; Magdalen Islands
  • Tropical Storm Warning: East of Bar Harbor to Eastport, Maine, US; Prince Edward Island; Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East Pubnico; Fundy National Park to Shediac; Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour; Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island; Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian is expected to continue to bring hurricane conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and strong winds - to parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and the Island of Newfoundland over the coming hours; these conditions could spread to areas under a Tropical Storm Warning in New Brunswick. The system, now considered a post-tropical cyclone, is forecast to cross Nova Scotia with hurricane force winds, although it is expected to continue losing power near Newfoundland early Sept. 8.

Forecast models indicate that rainfall of 2-7 cm (1-3 inches) is possible for far eastern Maine, US. In eastern Canada, forecast models indicate that a total of 7-12 cm (3-5 inches) of rain may fall in Nova Scotia, 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick, and 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) in Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec. Locally higher totals are possible. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Surge-related flooding could occur depending on how close the center of the storm comes to the coast and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the southwest coast of Newfoundland, and eastern Nova Scotia.


 

Transport and Utilities

Additional ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days, especially at Halifax Stanfield International Airport (YHZ), Yarmouth International Aiport (YQI), Charlottetown Airport (YYG), St. John's International Airport (YYT), Gander International Airport (YQX), Miquelon Airport (MQC), and St. Pierre Airport (FSP). High winds and heavy rains may trigger flight disruptions at other regional airports over the coming days. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could result in significant traffic congestion. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path. Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for floodwaters to recede and for authorities to complete necessary repair work and debris clearance. Strong winds may cause power outages.

 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.



 


Sept. 6: 8:19 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian tracking past coastal Carolinas, US, as Category 1 storm, Sept. 6. Close approach to New England likely late Sept. 6-7.

 

Click to enlarge Google Map.

This alert began 06 Sep 2019 12:14 GMT and is scheduled to expire 08 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 35 km (25 miles) of Cape Lookout, N.C.; 90 km (85 miles) southwest of Cape Hatteras, N.C.
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 78 kts (150 kph, 90 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Coastal regions of South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia; southern Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula; southeastern Massachusetts, US; Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, and Magdalen Islands, Canada 

 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian continues to track northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of North Carolina, early Sept. 6, and has weakened to Category 1. As of 0500 EDT, the center of circulation was located 35 km (25 miles) of Cape Lookout, North Carolina; 90 km (85 miles) southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 150 kph (90 mph) to affected areas.

Forecast models indicate that Dorian will continue moving northeastward dangerously close to the coast of North Carolina over the coming hours before moving southeast of extreme southeastern New England late Sept. 6 or the morning of Sept. 7. The system is forecast to continue northeastward toward Canada's Maritime Provinces, possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, late Sept. 7. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 EDT Sept. 6, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in the US and Canada in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, North Carolina (all US)
  • Tropical Storm Warning: South Santee River, South Carolina, to Little River Inlet; North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, Delaware; Chesapeake Bay south of Drum Point; Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, Maryland; Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts; Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard, southeastern Massachusetts
  • Storm Surge Warning: Surf City, North Carolina to Poquoson, Virginia; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; Neuse and Pamlico Rivers; Hampton Roads
  • Hurricane Watch: Nova Scotia
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Prince Edward Island; Magdalen Islands, Quebec; Fundy National Park to Shediac, New Brunswick; Francois, Newfoundland to Boat Harbour, Nova Scotia

 

Hazardous Conditions
 

Dorian will continue to bring hurricane conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - along parts of the North Carolina coast over the coming hours; tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern areas of the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are forecast in the Tropical Storm Warning areas of the Carolinas, Virginia, the Chesapeake Bay area, and southeastern Massachusetts from late Sept. 6-7. A few tornadoes may touch down in eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, Sept. 6.

Forecast models indicate that a total of 7-20 cm (3-8 inches) of rain could fall in northeastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia through Sept. 6. A rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is possible in the extreme southeastern New England. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian ends up tracking closer to the coast. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

In eastern Canada, forecast models indicate that a total of 7-12 cm (3-5 inches) of rain may fall in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, and 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) in Newfoundland. Locally higher totals are possible. Winds along the coastline are expected to reach 80-112 kph (50-70 mph) with gusts up to 136 kph (85 mph).

Storm surges could raise water levels to 1.2-2.1 meters (4-7 feet) from Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Water levels are also forecast to rise 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Duck to Poquoson, including Hampton Roads. Surge-related flooding depends on how close the center of the storm comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.


 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) remains closed as of early Sept. 5; it is unclear when the airport will reopen. Charleston International Airport (CHS) closed Sept. 4 and will tentatively reopen Sept. 6. Wilmington International Airport (ILM) closed Sept. 4 and will resume operations 1130 Sept. 6. Hilton Head Island Airport (HHH) also closed Sept. 4, but will reopen the morning Sept. 6. Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport (SAV) and Myrtle Beach International Airport (MYR) are still open, but will operate on a limited schedule through the afternoon of Sept. 6. High winds and heavy rains may trigger flight disruptions at other regional airports over the coming days.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could result in significant traffic congestion. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path. Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.

Severe power outages are likely to persist in North Carolina and South Carolina, where 293,000 customers are reportedly without power early Sept. 6. Winds may cause power outages and property damage further along the path of the storm. Officials have reported minimal outages in Virginia; however, the number of customers without power could increase later Sept. 6-7.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.


Sept. 5: 7:23 p.m. EST | Warning Alert
Dorian tracking past coastal South Carolina, US, as Category 2 storm, Sept. 5. Close approach to North Carolina likely Sept. 6.

 

This alert began 05 Sep 2019 23:15 GMT and is scheduled to expire 09 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 72 km (45 miles) southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; 137 km (85 miles) southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 kts (165 kph, 100 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Coastal regions of South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia; southern Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula; southeastern Massachusetts, US; Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland, Canada (map)

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian has weakened back to a Category 2 and is moving northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina, late Sept. 5. As of 1700 EDT, the center of circulation was located 72 km (45 miles) southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and 137 km (85 miles) southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 165 kph (100 mph) to affected areas. Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane over the next few days as it moves up the eastern seaboard, however uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecasts.

Forecast models indicate that Dorian will continue moving northeastward close to the coast of South Carolina before moving close to North Carolina late Sept. 5 through Sept. 6. Dorian's center is projected to pass offshore of southeastern New England late Sept. 6 through early Sept. 7, before continuing northeastward toward Canada's Maritime Provinces, possibly making landfall in Nova Scotia, Sept. 7-8. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 1700 EDT Sept. 5, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Edisto Beach, South Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia; Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Island; Southeastern Massachusetts including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Cape Cod.
  • Storm Surge Warning: Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Poquoson, Virginia; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; Neuse, James and Pamlico Rivers; Hampton Roads

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will continue to bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - along parts of the South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts, over the coming hours, late Sept. 5. Several tornadoes have touched down in South and North Carolina, Sept. 5, and more may touch down in eastern North Carolina and Virginia through Sept. 6. Tropical storm conditions are forecast in the Tropical Storm Warning areas of North Carolina, Virginia, and the Chesapeake Bay area Sept. 6.

Forecast models indicate that a total of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) of rain could fall along the Atlantic Coast near the Carolinas, with isolated accumulations of up to 38 cm (15 inches). 7-15 cm (3-6 inches) is possible in far southeast Virginia and Maryland. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian ends up tracking closer to the coast. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Storm surges could raise water levels to 1.5-2.4 meters (5-8 feet) from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and 1.2-2.1 meters (4-7 feet) from Savannah River to Isle of Palms, Myrtle Beach to Cape Lookout, Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Water levels are also forecast to rise 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Duck to Poquoson, including Hampton Roads. Surge-related flooding depends on how close the center of the storm comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Additionally, forecast models indicate that a total of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rain may fall in extreme southeastern New England and eastern Canada. Locally higher totals are possible. Winds along the coastline are expected to reach 40-55 kph (25-35 mph) with gusts up to 80 kph (50 mph).


 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. As of early Sept. 5, Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) remains closed until 2000 Sept. 5. Charleston International Airport (CHS) closed Sept. 4, and will tentatively reopen Sept. 6. Wilmington International Airport (ILM) closed Sept. 4 and will tentatively reopen the morning of Sept. 6. Hilton Head Island Airport (HHH) also closed Sept. 4, but will reopen 0600 Sept. 6. Most flights are also canceled at Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport (SAV) and Myrtle Beach International Airport (MYR) although these facilities are still open.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports over the coming days. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.


Sept. 5: 7:24 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian tracking past coastal South Carolina, US, as Category 3 storm, Sept. 5. Close approach to North Carolina likely Sept. 5-6.

This alert began 05 Sep 2019 11:21 GMT and is scheduled to expire 07 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 130 km (80 miles) south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina; 320 km (200 miles) south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 kts (185 kph, 115 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Southeastern US

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian has increased to Category 3 strength as it moves northward in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina, Sept. 5. As of 0500 EDT, the center of circulation was located 130 km (80 miles) south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and 320 km (200 miles) south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 185 kph (115 mph) to affected areas. Some fluctuations in the intensity of the system are forecast through the morning of Sept. 5, followed by slow weakening through Sept. 7; however, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane over the next few days.

Forecasters expect Dorian to continue moving northward close to the coast of South Carolina through Sept. 5, before moving close to North Carolina late Sept. 5 through Sept. 6. Forecast models indicate that Dorian's center should move to near the extreme southeastern of New England late Sept. 6 through early Sept. 7. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

States of emergency are in place in Florida and coastal-facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia. Mandatory evacuation orders are also in place in vulnerable areas of Florida, areas east of Interstate Highway I-95 in Georgia, and some coastal communities in the Carolinas. Evacuation orders in counties in southern Florida have mostly been lifted. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 EDT Sept. 5, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
  • Tropical Storm Warning: The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia; Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Island
  • Storm Surge Warning: Savannah River to Poquoson, Virginia; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; Neuse and Pamlico Rivers; Hampton Roads
  • Tropical Storm Watch: North of Chincoteague to Fenwick Island, Delaware; Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point; Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island; Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach; Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will continue to bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - along parts of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts, over the coming hours Sept. 5, with hurricane conditions developing along parts of the coastal Carolinas later Sept. 5. A few tornadoes are possible near the South and North Carolina coastal border Sept. 5, and in eastern North Carolina later Sept. 5. Tropical storm conditions are forecast in the Tropical Storm Warning areas of North Carolina, Virginia, and the Chesapeake Bay area Sept. 6.

Forecast models indicate that a total of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) of rain could fall along the Atlantic Coast near the Carolinas, with isolated accumulations of 38 cm (15 inches); 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) along coastal Georgia; 7-15 cm (3-6 inches) in far southeast Virginia, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in the extreme southwestern New England. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian ends up tracking closer to the coast. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Storm surges could raise water levels to 1.5-2.4 meters (5-8 feet) from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and 1.2-2.1 meters (4-7 feet) from Savannah River to Isle of Palms, Myrtle Beach to Cape Lookout, Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Water levels are also forecast to rise 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Volusia/Brevard County Line to Savannah River, Sebastian Inlet to Volusia/Brevard County Line, and Duck to Poquoson, including Hampton Roads. Surge-related flooding depends on how close the center of the storm comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.


 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. As of early Sept. 5, Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) remains closed until 2000 Sept. 5. Charleston International Airport (CHS) closed Sept. 4, and will tentatively reopen Sept. 6. Wilmington International Airport (ILM) closed Sept. 4 and will tentatively reopen the morning of Sept. 6. Hilton Head Island Airport (HHH) also closed Sept. 4; it is unclear when the airport will reopen. Most flights are also canceled at Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport (SAV), Myrtle Beach International Airport (MYR), and Jacksonville International Airport (JAX) although these facilities are still open. Widespread power outages have been reported in the affected areas due to the storm.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports over the coming days. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Sept. 4: 7:15 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian moving along the southeastern US coast as Category 2 storm, Sept. 4. Close approach to the Carolinas likely Sept. 5-6.

This alert began 04 Sep 2019 23:07 GMT and is scheduled to expire 06 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 175 km (110 miles) east-northeast of Jacksonville, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 kts (175 kph, 110 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Southeastern US 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian is moving north-northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean offshore from the Florida-Georgia border during the evening of Sept. 4. As of 1700 EDT, the storm remains at Category 2 strength, with its center of circulation located 175 km (110 miles) east-northeast of Jacksonville, Florida. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 175 kph (110 mph) to affected areas.

Forecasters expect Dorian to continue moving northward off the coast of Georgia and along the South Carolina coast through Sept. 5, passing within less than 100 km (60 miles) of Charleston during the afternoon. It will subsequently pass near or over coastal North Carolina late Sept. 5 and into Sept. 6. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

States of emergency are in place in Florida and coastal-facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Mandatory evacuation orders are also in place in vulnerable areas of Florida, areas east of Interstate Highway I-95 in Georgia, and some coastal communities in the Carolinas. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 1700 EDT Sept. 4, the government of the Bahamas has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for that country. The following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in the US in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Savannah River to the the North Carolina, Virginia border including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
  • Tropical Storm Warning: The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia; Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Island, Maryland; Volusia/Brevard County line to the Savannah River
  • Hurricane Watch: East of Jacksonville, Florida to the Savannah River
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Fenwick Island, Delaware to Chincoteague, Virginia; California, Virginia southwest to Roanoke Rapids, Virginia

 

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will continue to bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - to the extreme northeastern coast of Florida, as well as the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Sept. 4.

Forecast models indicate that a total of 7-15 cm (3-6 inches) of rain could fall along the Atlantic Coast near the Georgia-South Carolina border, as well as in southeast Virginia, with higher accumulations of up to 22 cm (9 inches) near the Virginia coast. Forecast guidance also indicates that the coastal Carolinas will see 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rainfall, with isolated accumulations of 38 cm (15 inches). Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian ends up tracking closer to the coast. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Storm surges could raise water levels to 1.5-2 meters (5-6.5 feet) from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and 1.2-2 meters (4-7.5 feet) from Savannah River to Isle of Palms, Myrtle Beach to Cape Lookout, and Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Water levels are also forecast to rise 0.6-1.5 meters (2-5 feet) from Volusia/Brevard County Line to Savannah River, Sebastian Inlet to Volusia/Brevard County Line, and Duck to Poquoson, including Hampton Roads. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of the storm comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.


 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Orlando International Airport (MCO) has reopened Sept. 4, but all flights are canceled through Sept. 5. Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) remains closed until Sept. 5. Charleston International Airport (CHS) closed Sept. 4, but will tentatively reopen Sept. 6. Most flights are also canceled at Wilmington International Airport (ILM), Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport (SAV), and Myrtle Beach International Airport (MYR) although these facilities are still open.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports over the coming days. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 

 


Sept. 4: 5:42 p.m. EST  | Critical Alert
Recovery efforts ongoing in the Bahamas and Florida, US, following major damage due to Hurricane Dorian, Sept. 1-4.

The locations affected by this alert are:

  • Bahamas
  • Miami, Florida
  • Orlando, Florida
  • Daytona Beach, Florida
  • Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
  • West Palm Beach, Florida
  • Gainesville, Florida
  • Melbourne-Space Coast, Florida
  • Sanford, Florida
  • Fort Pierce, Florida
  • Vero Beach, Florida

This alert began 04 Sep 2019 21:36 GMT and is scheduled to expire 06 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian aftermath
  • Location: Bahamas and Florida (map)
  • Time Frame: Indefinite
  • Impact: Severe business and transport disruptions; power outages,; flooding; health concerns

 

Summary

Prolonged cleanup and recovery efforts will likely continue in the coming weeks and months in the Bahamas and parts of central and south Florida following the recent passage of Hurricane Dorian. The system first made landfall over the Abaco Islands, Sept. 1, and subsequently on Grand Bahama Island, Sept. 2, as a Category-5 hurricane with wind speeds of 295 kph (185 mph). These speeds made Dorian the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in the Atlantic basin. Initial assessments as of Sept. 4 reveal extensive damage from wind, rain, and flooding. As of late Sept. 4, Dorian is east of Jacksonville, Florida, US, near the Florida-South Carolina border. The storm's outer bands have pushed away from the Bahamas and most of Florida. However, the system produced significant rain and flooding as it tracked across the northern Bahamas and it could take several days for floodwaters to recede. The impact on Florida was less significant, but some coastal areas have still experienced high water and flooding.

Response Efforts

Authorities will likely focus on the hardest-hit areas of Abaco and Grand Bahama islands. Reports indicate there have been at least seven storm-related deaths in the Abaco Islands as of Sept. 4. Casualty figures could increase over the coming days and weeks as response and recovery efforts progress. Some communities could remain inaccessible for several days due to infrastructure damage and elevated watercourses. Significant damage has not been reported in Florida; there has only been one storm-related death reported in the state.
 

Transportation and Utilities

Extensive damage to regional roads, bridges, and other transportation infrastructure is hampering recovery efforts in the Bahamas. It could take several weeks for authorities to fully assess the structural integrity of roads and bridges before traffic can resume in some areas.

Air transport in the region continues to experience significant disruptions. Runways at Leonard M. Thompson Airport (MHH) remain entirely submerged as of Sept. 4. North Eleuthera Airport (ELH), South Bimini Airport (BIM), Walker's Cay Airport (WKR), Treasure Cay Airport (TCB), and West End Airport all remain closed. Although initial reports indicate that floodwaters have receded from Grand Bahama Airport (FPO), the facility has sustained major damage. Significant clean-up and possibly runway repairs will be required before flight operations can resume at FPO. The facilities will likely initially open only to military and relief aircraft, and remain closed to scheduled civilian flights for at least several days. Intra-island air transport remains extremely limited and can only be performed by helicopter; floating debris from the storm and damage to marinas and jetties have rendered boat transport between islands impossible.

Airports in southern and central Florida reopened Sept. 4, including the three busiest in the state - Miami International Airport (MIA), Orlando International Airport (MCO), and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL). However, residual disruptions could extend for several days after over 1,000 flights were canceled as Dorian transited the area.

Reports indicate widespread electrical and telecommunications outages on New Providence Island. Authorities have not provided an estimate as to when they will restore services. Power outages are likely widespread in more remote areas; it could take weeks for restoration crews to reach currently inaccessible communities. In Florida, 140,000 people temporarily lost power Sept. 2-3, but as of Sept. 4, almost all outages have been resolved.

Health

Although a secondary concern, the threat of disease outbreaks remain possible in the coming days and weeks. Backflow from drains that have mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become breeding grounds for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also pose significant health threats.
 

Advice

Seek updated information on road conditions before driving in affected areas; some roads could be closed for days. Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistical disruptions in the Bahamas. Do not drive on flooded roads or past flood barriers. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the ongoing threat of areal flooding.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellphones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

 

 


Sept. 4: 11:15 a.m. EST  | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian leaves catastrophic damage in parts of the Bahamas, Sept. 1-3. Prolonged recovery efforts likely.

The locations affected by this alert are:

  • Bahamas
  • Nassau
  • Andros Islands
Click to enlarge Google Map.

This alert began 04 Sep 2019 15:14 GMT and is scheduled to expire 05 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian aftermath
  • Location: Nationwide 
  • Time Frame: Indefinite
  • Impact: Road closures, business and transport disruptions, power outages, flooding, health concerns

 

Summary

Prolonged cleanup and recovery efforts will likely continue in the coming weeks and months in parts of the Bahamas following the recent passage of Hurricane Dorian. The system first made landfall over the Abaco Islands, Sept. 1, and subsequently, on Grand Bahama Island, Sept. 2 as a Category-5 hurricane with wind speeds of 160 kts (185 mph, 295 kph). This made Dorian the strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic basin on record. Initial assessments as of Sept. 4 reveal extensive damage from wind, rain, and flooding. As of early Sept. 4, Dorian is located east of Jacksonville, Florida, US, and the outer bands of the storm have pushed away from the Bahamas. However, the system produced significant rain and flooding as it tracked across the northern Bahamas and it could take several days for floodwaters to recede.
 

Response Efforts

Authorities will likely focus on the hardest-hit areas of Abaco and Grand Bahama islands. Reports indicate at least seven storm-related deaths in the Abaco Islands as of Sept. 4. Casualty figures could increase over the coming days and weeks as response and recovery efforts progress. Some communities could remain inaccessible for several days due to infrastructure damage and elevated watercourses.

 

Transportation and Utilities

Extensive damage to regional roads, bridges, and other transportation infrastructure is hampering recovery efforts in the Bahamas. It could take several weeks for authorities to fully assess the structural integrity of roads and bridges before traffic can resume in some areas.

Air transport in the region continues to experience significant disruptions. Runways at both Grand Bahama (FPO) and Leonard M. Thompson (MHH) airports are entirely submerged in floodwater; Treasure Cay (TCB) airport is also closed. The facilities may not resume operation for several days.

Reports also indicate widespread electrical and telecommunications outages in and around New Providence Island. Authorities have not provided an estimate as to when they would restore services. Power outages are likely widespread in more remote areas, and it could take weeks for restoration crews to reach currently inaccessible communities.


 

Health

Although a secondary concern, the threat of disease outbreaks remain possible in the coming days and weeks. Backflow from drains that have mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become a breeding ground for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also poses a significant health threat.

 

Advice

Seek updated information on road conditions before driving in affected areas; some roads could be closed for days. Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistical disruptions in the Bahamas. Do not drive on flooded roads or past flood barriers. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the ongoing threat of areal flooding.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellphones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.


Sept. 4: 7:44 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian moving along the northeastern coast of Florida, US, as Category 2 storm, early Sept. 4. Close approach to Georgia likely.

Click to enlarge Google Map.

This Alert began Sep 04, 2019 11:41 UTC and is scheduled to expire Sep 06, 2019 23:59 UTC.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 145 km (90 miles) east of Daytona Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 91 kts (165 kph, 105 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Southeastern US 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian is moving northwestward off the northeastern coast of Florida, and will move dangerously close to the coasts of Florida and Georgia through late Sept. 4. As of 0500 EDT, the storm has weakened to Category 2 strength, with its center of circulation located 145 km (90 miles) east of Daytona Beach, Florida, US. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 165 kph (105 mph) to affected areas.

Dorian is forecast to continue to move past the coast of Georgia through Sept. 5, and along the South Carolina coast late Sept. 5. It will subsequently pass near or over coastal North Carolina late Sept. 5 and into Sept. 6. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

States of emergency are in place in Florida and coastal-facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Mandatory evacuation orders are also in place in vulnerable areas of Florida, areas east of Interstate Highway I-95 in Georgia, and some coastal communities in the Carolinas. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 EDT Sept. 4, the government of the Bahamas has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the Bahamas. The following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in the US in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Volusia/Brevard County line to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida; north of Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line, Florida; north of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Savannah River
  • Storm Surge Warning: Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina
  • Hurricane Watch: North of Ponte Vedra Beach to Savannah River; north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border; Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, North Carolina
  • Tropical Storm Watch: The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia; Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point, Virginia, southward
  • Storm Surge Watch: North of Surf City to Poquoson, Virginia including Hampton Roads; Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

 

Hazardous Conditions
 

Dorian will continue to bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - to parts of the northeastern coast of Florida Sept. 4. Storm conditions are also expected along the coast of Georgia, later in the morning Sept. 4.

Forecast models indicate that an additional 7-15 cm (3-6 inches) of rain could fall along the Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border, as well as in southeast Virginia, with higher accumulations of up to 22 cm (9 inches) near the Virginia coast. Forecast guidance also indicates that the coastal Carolinas will see 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) of rainfall, with isolated accumulations of 38 cm (15 inches). Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Storm surges could raise water levels to 1.5-2 meters (5-8 feet) from Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and 1.2-2 meters (4-7 feet) from Savannah River to Isle of Palms, Myrtle Beach to Cape Lookout, and Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Water levels are also forecast to rise 0.6-1.5 meters (2-5 feet) from Volusia/Brevard County Line to Savannah River, Sebastian Inlet to Volusia/Brevard County Line, and Duck to Poquoson, including Hampton Roads. Surge-related flooding depends on how close the center of the storm comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.


 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) and Orlando International Airport (MCO) are closed early Sept. 4. Charleston International Airport (CHS) is scheduled to close Sept. 4. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL), which was previously closed Sept. 3, has reopened, though lingering disruptions are likely.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), Savannah (SAV), Charleston (CHS), Myrtle Beach (MYR), and Wilmington (ILM) over the coming days. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Sept 3: 8:48 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian leaves catastrophic damage in parts of Bahamas, Sept. 1-3. Prolonged recovery efforts likely.

 

The locations affected by this alert are:

  • Bahamas
  • Nassau
  • Andros Islands

This alert began 04 Sep 2019 00:46 GMT and is scheduled to expire 05 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian aftermath
  • Location: Nationwide (map)
  • Time frame: Indefinite
  • Impact: Road closures, business and transport disruptions, power outages, flooding, health concerns

 

Summary

Prolonged cleanup and recovery efforts will likely continue in the coming weeks and months in parts of the Bahamas following the recent passage of Hurricane Dorian. The system first made landfall over the Abaco Islands, Sept. 1, and subsequently, on Grand Bahama Island, Sept. 2. Initial assessments as of Sept. 3 reveal extensive damage from wind, rain, and flooding. Although Dorian is tracking northwest away from the Bahamas, it is moving very slowly, and storm conditions are still impacting the island, delaying recovery efforts.

The system produced significant rain and flooding as it tracked across the northern Bahamas. Lingering rain from the storm's outer bands could slow the recession of flood waters over the coming days.


 

Response Efforts

Authorities will likely focus on the hardest-hit areas of Abaco and Grand Bahama islands. Reports indicate at least five storm-related deaths in the Abaco Islands as of Sept. 3. Casualty figures could increase over the coming days and weeks as response and recovery efforts progress. Some communities could remain inaccessible for several days due to infrastructure damage and elevated watercourses.

 

Transportation and Utilities

Extensive damage to regional roads, bridges, and other transportation infrastructure is hampering recovery efforts in the Bahamas. It could take several weeks for authorities to fully assess the structural integrity of roads and bridges before traffic can resume in some areas.

Air transport in the region continues to experience significant disruptions. Runways at both Grand Bahama (FPO) and Leonard M. Thompson (MHH) airports are entirely submerged in floodwater; Treasure Cay (TCB) airports is also closed. The facilities may not resume operation for several days.

Reports also indicate widespread electrical and telecommunications outages in and around New Providence Island. Authorities have not provided an estimate as to when they would restore services. Power outages are likely widespread in more remote areas, and it could take weeks for restoration crews to reach currently inaccessible communities.


 

Health

Although a secondary concern, the threat of disease outbreaks cannot remain possible in the coming days and weeks. Backflow from drains that have mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become a breeding ground for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also poses a significant health threat.

 

Advice

Seek updated information on road conditions before driving in affected areas; some roads could be closed for days. Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistical disruptions in the Bahamas. Do not drive on flooded roads or past flood barriers. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the ongoing threat of areal flooding.

Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellphones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.


 


Sept. 3: 7:07 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian moving slowly toward Florida East Coast as Category 2 storm, Sept. 3. Close approach to Southeast US coast likely.

This alert began 03 Sep 2019 23:04 GMT and is scheduled to expire 06 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

Click to enlarge Google Map.
  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 130 km (80 miles) northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas; 165 km (100 miles) east of Vero Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 kts (175 kph, 110 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas; southeastern US

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian has begun a more definite, albeit very slow, movement northwestward, Sept. 3, after having remained stationary north of Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas. As of 1700 EDT, the storm had weakened to Category-2 strength, with its center of circulation located 130 km (80 miles) northeast of Freeport, Bahamas, and 165 km (100 miles) east of Vero Beach, Florida, US. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 175 kph (110 mph) to affected areas. Dorian has so far caused five fatalities on Abaco Island. Large parts of the Bahamas have been devastated, with 13,000 homes severely damaged or destroyed on Abaco and Grand Bahama islands. Extensive flooding is believed to have contaminated wells with salt water, creating an urgent need for potable water.

Dorian will continue moving northward somewhat offshore of Florida's Atlantic coast through Sept. 4 before closely approaching the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Sept. 4-5. It will subsequently pass near or over coastal North Carolina late Sept. 5 and into Sept. 6. States of emergency are in place in Florida and coastal-facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Mandatory evacuation orders are also in place in vulnerable areas of Florida, areas east of Interstate Highway I-95 in Georgia, and some coastal communities in the Carolinas. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.

While Dorian is expected to weaken gradually, it will likely remain a powerful hurricane through the next few days. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 1700 EDT Sept. 3, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in northwestern Bahamas; Jupiter Inlet, on the eastern coast of Florida, US, to Ponte Vedra Beach. North of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina
  • Tropical Storm Warning: North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida; north of Ponte Vedra Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
  • Storm Surge Warning: North of Jupiter, Florida to Cape Island, South Carolina
  • Hurricane Watch: North of Cape Island, South Carolina to Roanoke City, North Carolina
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Govan, South Carolina to East of Rocky Mount, North Carolina
  • Storm Surge Watch: North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana; Savannah River to South Santee River

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will continue to bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - to Grand Bahama through late Sept. 3, and to the southeastern coastal areas of Florida through Sept. 4. Storm conditions are also expected along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, Sept. 4.

Forecast models indicate that an additional 7-15 cm (3-6 inches) of rain could fall in the northwestern Bahamas, as well as along the Atlantic Coast from the Florida Peninsula, north of West Palm Beach, through Georgia. Forecast guidance also indicates that southeast Virginia will see 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall, with 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) falling in the coastal Carolinas. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches. Sites downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Life-threatening storm surge could raise water levels 3-4.5 meters (10-15 feet) above normal on Grand Bahama Island; water levels could slowly subside on the Abaco Islands starting Sept. 3. Storm surges could raise water levels to 1-2 meters (4-7 feet) from Lantana to South Santee River, and 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) north of Deerfield Beach to Lantana. Tornadoes are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through late Sept. 3, as well as near the immediate coastal area of Georgia and the coastal Carolinas, Sept. 4-5.


 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) and Orlando International Airport (MCO) are closed Sept. 3, while Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) and Orlando Melbourne International Airport (MLB) have been closed since Sept. 2. Charleston International Airport (CHS) is scheduled to close Sept. 4.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), into Sept. 4. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.


 

Resources

National Hurricane Center: www.nhc.noaa.gov
Florida Division of Emergency Management: www.floridadisaster.org
Georgia Emergency Management: www.gema.ga.gov
South Carolina Emergency Management Division: www.scemd.org
North Carolina (Ready NC): readync.org

Airports - Bahamas
Grand Bahama International Airport: www.airportia.com/bahamas/grand-bahama-international-airport/
Leonard M. Thompson International Airport: www.airnav.com/airport/MYAM
Treasure Cay International Airport: www.airnav.com/airport/MYAT

Airports - US
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport: www.broward.org/airport
Miami International Airport: www.miami-airport.com
Orlando International Airport: www.orlandoairports.net
Orlando Melbourne International Airport: www.mlbair.com
Orlando Sanford International Airport: flysfb.com
Palm Beach International Airport: www.pbia.org/
Southwest Florida International (Fort Myers): www.flylcpa.com
Tampa International: www.tampaairport.com
Charleston International Airport: www.iflychs.com/

Utilities and Traffic Conditions
Florida 511: fl511.com
Florida Power Outage Map: floridadisaster.maps.arcgis.com

Evacuation Zones
Florida: www.floridadisaster.maps.arcgis.com/
South Carolina: www.scemd.org


Sept. 3: 7:28 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian stationary over northern Bahamas as Category 3 storm, Sept. 3. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely mid-Sept. 3.

This alert began 03 Sep 2019 11:25 GMT and is scheduled to expire 06 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

Click to enlarge Google Map.
  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 55 km (35 miles) northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas; 170 km (105 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 104 kts (195 kph, 120 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas; southeastern US 

 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian remains stationary north of Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas, and has weakened to Category-3 strength. As of 0500 EDT Sept. 3, the storm is located 55 km (35 miles) northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas, and 170 km (105 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US. The stationary storm will continue to bring catastrophic winds and storm surges to Grand Bahama Island over the coming hours. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 195 kph (120 mph). Dorian has so far caused five fatalities on the Bahamas island of Abaco. Large parts of the Bahamas have been devastated, with 13,000 homes severely damaged or destroyed on Abaco and Grand Bahama islands. Extensive flooding is believed to have contaminated wells with salt water, creating an urgent need for potable water.

A slow northwestward motion is expected to begin in the late morning Sept. 3, bringing Dorian dangerously close to Florida's east coast through late Sept. 4, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Sept. 4-5, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Sept. 5. States of emergency are in place in Florida, coastal facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and in North Carolina. Mandatory evacuation orders are also in place in vulnerable areas of Florida, areas east of the I-95 in Georgia, and some coastal communities in the Carolinas. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.

Meteorologists project that Dorian will follow the US coast northward over the next several days, remaining between 75-165 km (48-102 miles) offshore before making a close pass along the coast of North Carolina as far as Cape Hatteras around Sept. 6. While Dorian is expected to weaken gradually, it is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the next few days. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 EDT Sept. 3, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in northwestern Bahamas; Jupiter Inlet, on the eastern coast of Florida, US, to Ponte Vedra Beach
  • Tropical Storm Warning: North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida; north of Ponte Vedra Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
  • Storm Surge Warning: Lantana, Florida, to Savannah River
  • Hurricane Watch: North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet; North of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina
  • Tropical Storm Watch: North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, Florida; Lake Okeechobee
  • Storm Surge Watch: North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana; Savannah River to South Santee River

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will continue to bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - to Grand Bahama through the morning of Sept. 3, and to the eastern coastal areas of Florida by late Sept. 3. Storm conditions are also expected along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, Sept. 4.

Forecast models indicate that an additional 7-15 cm (3-6 inches) of rain could fall in the northwestern Bahamas, as well as along the Atlantic Coast from the Florida Peninsula, north of West Palm Beach, through Georgia. Meteorologists also expect that southeast Virginia will see 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall, and 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) in the coastal Carolinas. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Life-threatening storm surge could raise water levels up to 3-4.5 meters (10-15 feet) above normal on Grand Bahama Island; water levels could slowly subside on Abaco Islands, Sept. 3. Storm surges could raise water levels to 1-2 meters (4-7 feet) from Lantana to South Santee River, and 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) north of Deerfield Beach to Lantana. Tornadoes are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through late Sept. 3, as well as near the immediate coastal area of Georgia and the coastal Carolinas, Sept. 4-5.


 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) and Orlando International Airport (MCO) will be closed Sept. 3, while Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) and Orlando Melbourne International Airport (MLB) closed Sept. 2.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), through Sept. 3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Sept. 2: 5:40 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian sits stationary over northern Bahamas as Cat. 4 storm, Sept. 2. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely mid-Sept. 3.

Click on above image to access an interactive Google Map.

This alert began 02 Sep 2019 21:54 GMT and is scheduled to expire 05 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 40 km (25 miles) northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas; 170 km (105 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 125 kts (230 kph, 145 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas; southeastern US

 

Summary

Having lost intensity slightly, Hurricane Dorian sits stationary north of Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas, with Category 4 strength. As of 1700 EDT, the storm's center of circulation is 40 km (25 miles) northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas, and 170 km (105 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US. The stationary storm will continues to bring catastrophic winds and storm surges to Grand Bahama Island through early Sept. 3. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 230 kph (145 mph). Preliminary assessments indicate the storm has caused extensive damage to the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama, with 13,000 homes severely damaged or destroyed.

The hurricane is forecast to resume slow movement northwest overnight and come dangerously close to Florida's east coast late Sept. 3 through late Sept. 4 and then move close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Sept. 4 and 5, with hurricane conditions continuing. There is an increasing chance of of strong winds, and dangerous storm surges from Sept. 4 along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, where officials have begun preparing for the storm. States of emergency are in place in Florida, coastal facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and in North Carolina. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.

Meteorologists project that Dorian will follow the US coast northward over the next several days, remaining between 75-165 km (48-102 miles) offshore before making a close pass along the coast of North Carolina as far as Cape Hatteras. While Dorian is expected to gradually weaken, it is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the next few days. Some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 1700 EDT Sept. 2, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning: Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in northwestern Bahamas; Jupiter Inlet, on the eastern coast of Florida, US, to Ponte Vedra Beach
  • Tropical Storm Warning: North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
  • Storm Surge Warning: Lantana to Altamaha Sound
  • Hurricane Watch: North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet; North of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River
  • Tropical Storm Watch: North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach; Lake Okeechobee
  • Storm Surge Watch: North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana; Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will continue to bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - to Grand Bahama, into Sept. 3. Forecast models indicate that 31-61 cm (12-24 inches) of rain could fall in the northwestern Bahamas, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over central Bahamas. Life-threatening storm surge could raise water levels up to 5.5-7 meters (18-23 feet) above normal on Grand Bahama Island; water levels could slowly subside on Abaco Islands Sept. 2.

Heavy rains and high winds from Dorian will begin affecting Florida, late Sept. 2 to early Sept. 3, before gradually spreading northward into coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina through Sept. 6. Meteorologists expect that Atlantic coastal areas in Florida and Georgia will see rain accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches). In coastal Carolinas, 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) are forecast. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

 

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), through Sept. 3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.

 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 

Resources

 


Sept. 2: 7:37 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian tracking over northern Bahamas as Category 5 storm, Sept. 2. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely late Sept. 2.

Click on above image to access an interactive Google Map.

This alert began 02 Sep 2019 12:15 UTC and is scheduled to expire 05 Sep 2019 23:59 UTC.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 60 km (40 miles) east of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas; 190 km (115 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 143 kts (270 kph, 165 mph)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas; southeastern US

Summary

Hurricane Dorian continues to track westward over Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas, with Category 5 strength. As of 0500 EDT, the storm's center of circulation 60 km (40 miles) east of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas, and 190 km (115 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US. The slow-moving storm will continue to bring catastrophic winds and storm surges to Grand Bahama Island through late Sept. 2. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 270 kmh (165 mph). Preliminary assessments indicate the storm has caused extensive damage to the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama, with 13,000 homes severely damaged or destroyed.

The hurricane is forecast to move dangerously close to Florida's east coast late Sept. 2 through late Sept. 3, with hurricane conditions expected through Sept. 5. There is an increasing chance of of strong winds, and dangerous storm surges from Sept. 5 along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, where officials have begun preparing for the storm. States of emergency are in place in Florida, coastal facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and in North Carolina. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.

Meteorologists project that Dorian will follow the US coast northward over the next several days, remaining between 75-165 km (48-102 miles) offshore before making a close pass along the coast of North Carolina as far as Cape Hatteras, Sept. 5-6. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 EDT Sept. 2, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Hurricane Warning:
    Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in northwestern Bahamas; Jupiter inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, on the eastern coast of Florida, US
  • Tropical Storm Warning:
    North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, on the eastern coast of Florida, US
  • Hurricane Watch:
    North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet; Volusia/Brevard County Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, Florida, US
  • Tropical Storm Watch:
    North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach; Lake Okeechobee
Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - to Grand Bahama, Sept. 2. Forecast models indicate that 31-61 cm (12-24 inches) of rain could fall in the northwestern Bahamas, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over central Bahamas. Life-threatening storm surge could raise water levels up to 5.5-7 meters (18-23 feet) above normal on Grand Bahama Island; water levels could slowly subside on Abaco Islands Sept. 2.

Heavy rains and high winds from Dorian will begin affecting Florida, late Sept. 2, before gradually spreading northward into coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina through Sept. 6. Meteorologists expect that Atlantic coastal areas in Florida and Georgia will see rain accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches). In coastal Carolinas, 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) are forecast. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), through Sept. 3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Sept. 1: 3:24 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Dorian makes landfall in northern Bahamas as Category 5 storm, Sept. 1. Close approach to Florida, US, coast likely Sept. 2-3.

Click on above image to access an interactive Google Map.

This alert began 01 Sep 2019 19:21 GMT and is scheduled to expire 05 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 30 km (20 miles) east-northeast of Great Abaco, Bahamas; 330 km (205 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 155 kts (285 kph, 180 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Abaco Islands, Bahamas (afternoon Sept. 1); Grand Bahama Island (evening Sept. 1)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas; southeastern US

Summary

Hurricane Dorian intensified significantly, Sept. 1, reaching Category 5 strength as it made landfall in the northern Bahamas. As of 1100 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was 30 km (20 miles) east-northeast of Great Abaco, Bahamas, and 330 km (205 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US. According to the US National Hurricane Center, Dorian has become the strongest hurricane in modern records to strike the northwestern Bahamas, with catastrophic conditions occurring in the Abacos Islands. The system is bringing maximum sustained winds of 285 kph (180 mph), with gusts reaching 352 kph (218 mph).

The latest guidance suggests Dorian will retain Category 5 strength as it continues moving westward across the northern Bahamas, with a second landfall occurring on Grand Bahama Island during the evening of Sept. 1. The system will subsequently begin weakening gradually, approaching to within 83 km (52 miles) of Florida's Atlantic coast as a Category 4 storm while making a northward turn Sept. 2-3. Meteorologists project that Dorian will follow the US coast northward over the next several days, remaining between 75-165 km (48-102 miles) offshore before making a close pass along the coast of North Carolina as far as Cape Hatteras, Sept. 5-6. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Officials in the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina have begun preparing for the storm's arrival. Authorities have issued evacuation orders for Great Abaco and parts of Grand Bahama in the Bahamas. States of emergency are in place in Florida, coastal facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and in North Carolina. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely near Dorian's path in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 1100 EDT Sept. 1, a hurricane warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, excluding Andros Island. Hurricane watches are in effect for Andros Island, Bahamas, as well as the east coast of Florida, US, from north of Deerfeld Beach to the Volusia-Brevard county line.

In Florida, a tropical storm warning is in effect for north of Deerfeld Beach to Sebastian Inlet; tropical storm watches have been declared north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, as well as for Lake Okeechobee. A storm surge watch is in force from north of Deerfeld Beach to the Volusia-Brevard county line.

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will bring devastating storm conditions - including heavy rainfall, flooding, and destructive winds - to parts of the Bahamas, Sept. 1-3. Forecast models indicate that 31-61 cm (12-24 inches) of rain could fall in the northwestern Bahamas, with totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) possible in the central part of the island nation. Life-threatening storm surge could raise water levels up to 5.5-7 meters (18-23 feet) above normal on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island.

Heavy rains and high winds from Dorian will begin affecting Florida, Sept. 2, before gradually spreading northward into coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina through Sept. 6. Meteorologists expect that Atlantic coastal areas in Florida and Georgia will see rain accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches). In coastal Carolinas, 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) are forecast. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Transport and Utilities

Severe ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), through Sept. 3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.

 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Sept. 1: 6:33 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian continues to track towards Bahamas and Florida, US, Sept. 1. Landfall likely in northern Bahamas, Sept. 1.

Click on above image to access an interactive Google Map.

This alert began 01 Sep 2019 10:30 GMT and is scheduled to expire 05 Sep 2019 08:00 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 100 km (60 miles) east of Great Abaco, Bahamas; 400 km (250 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 130 kts (240 kph, 150 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Abaco Islands, Bahamas (Sept. 1)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas; southeastern US

Summary

Hurricane Dorian, a Category 4 hurricane, continues to track westward in the western Atlantic Ocean, Sept. 1. As of 0500 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was 100 km (60 miles) east of Great Abaco, Bahamas, and 400 km (250 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US. The latest guidance suggests landfall is likely in the Abaco Islands, Bahamas, during the afternoon of Sept. 1. Meteorologists project that Dorian will begin weakening slightly as it transits the northern Bahamas and approaches Florida through Sept. 3. Current models indicate Dorian will then turn northward without making landfall in Florida, and follow the US coast. Uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Officials in the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina have begun preparing for the storm's arrival. Authorities have issued evacuation orders for Great Abaco and parts of Grand Bahama in the Bahamas. States of emergency are in place in Florida, coastal facing counties of Georgia, South Carolina, and in North Carolina. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely in the Bahamas and the southeastern US, including Virginia, in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 EDT Sept. 1, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island, Bahamas.

In the US, a Tropical Storm Warning is active for the area north of Deerfield to Sebastian Inlet while a Tropical Storm Watch is in place for the area north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach. These areas are all in Florida.

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to parts of the Bahamas, Sept. 1-3, and Florida, Sept. 2-4. Forecast models indicate that 31-61 cm (12-24 inches) of rain could fall in the northwestern Bahamas. In the central Bahamas and Atlantic coastal areas in Florida to Georgia accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches). In coastal Carolinas, 12-25 cm (5-10 inches) is forecast. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches landfall. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Swells are likely on east-facing shores of the Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern US in the coming days. Swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Storm surge will raise water levels 4.5-6 meters (15-20 feet) above normal tide levels in Great Abaco and Grand Bahama.

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), through Sept. 3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.

 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 31: 5:03 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian continues to track towards northwestern Bahamas and Florida, US, Aug. 31. Landfall likely in northern Bahamas, Sept. 1.

Click on image to access an interactive Google Map.

This alert began 31 Aug 2019 21:01 GMT and is scheduled to expire 03 Sep 2019 23:59 GMT.

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 325 km (205 miles) east of Great Abaco, Bahamas; 625 km (285 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 130 kts (240 kph, 150 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Abaco Islands, Bahamas (Sept. 1)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas; southeastern US

Summary

Hurricane Dorian has strengthened further but remains a Category 4 hurricane as it continues tracking westward in the western Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 31. As of 1400 EDT Aug. 31, the storm's center of circulation was 325 km (205 miles) east of Great Abaco, Bahamas, and 625 km (285 miles) east of West Palm Beach, Florida, US. Forecast models predict the storm will continue to strengthen slightly as it traverses warm Atlantic waters towards the Bahamas. The latest guidance suggests landfall is likely in the Abaco Islands, Bahamas, during the evening of Sept. 1. Meteorologists project that Dorian will begin weakening slightly but remain at least a Category 3 storm as it transits the northern Bahamas and approaches Florida through Sept. 3. Current models indicate Dorian will then turn northward without making landfall in Florida, and follow the US coast, remaining about 100-150 km (60-90 miles) offshore before making a close approach or possible landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina, potentially as a Category 2 hurricane, early Sept. 5. Uncertainty remains in the forecast and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Officials in the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina have begun preparing for the storm's arrival. Authorities have issued evacuation orders for Great Abaco and parts of Grand Bahama in the Bahamas. States of emergency are in place in Florida, coastal facing counties of Georgia and in North Carolina. Preparations for the hurricane's approach are also ongoing South Carolina. Further precautionary measures, including additional evacuation orders, are likely in the Bahamas and the southeastern US in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 1400 EDT Aug. 31, the hurricane warnings were in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, excluding Andros Island. A hurricane watch is in effect for Andros Island. The US National Hurricane Center has stated that a hurricane watch could be issued for southern and central Florida later Aug. 31.

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to parts of the Bahamas, Aug. 31-Sept.3, and Florida, Sept. 1-2. Forecast models indicate that 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall could occur in the central Bahamas and 25-38 cm (10-15 inches) could fall in the northwestern Bahamas. Projections indicate the storm could later bring rainfall totals of 15-31 cm (6-12 inches) in coastal areas of the southeastern US with up to 46 cm (18 inches) possible in some areas, leading to possible life-threatening flash floods. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches landfall. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Swells are likely on east-facing shores of the Bahamas, Florida, and southeastern US in the coming days. Swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Storm surge will raise water levels 3-4.5 meters (10-15 feet) above normal tide levels in Great Abaco and Grand Bahama.

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), through Sept. 3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 31: 6:27 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian continues to track towards northwestern Bahamas and Florida, US, Aug. 31. Severe weather conditions are forecast.

Click here to enlarge image and interact with Google map.

Effective Aug. 31 at 10:30 UTC:

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 455 km (283 miles) east of Great Abaco, Bahama
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 kts (220 kph, 140 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Abaco Islands, Bahamas (Sept. 1)
  • Affected Areas: The Bahamas, Florida (US), Southeast US 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and is tracking in a westerly directly in the western Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 31. As of 0500 EDT Aug. 31, the storm's center of circulation was 455 km (283 miles) east of Great Abaco, Bahamas. Forecast models predict the storm will continue to strengthen slightly as it traverses warm Atlantic waters towards the Bahamas. The latest guidance suggests possible landfall in the Abaco Islands, Bahamas, Sept. 1. Afterward, model guidance indicates that Dorian will travel westward and begin to weaken slightly before moving northwards near the US southeast coastline. Uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Officials in the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina have begun preparing for the storm's arrival. Authorities have issued evacuation orders for Great Abaco and parts of Grand Bahama in the Bahamas. States of emergency are in place in Florida, coastal facing counties of Georgia and in North Carolina. In South Carolina, preparations for the hurricane's arrival are also ongoing. Further precautionary measures are likely in the Bahamas and the Southeast US in the coming days, including additional evacuation orders.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 EDT Aug. 31, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) maintains Hurricane Warning for the northwestern Bahamas, excluding Andros Island. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Andros Island. The NHC has stated that Hurricane Watch alerts are likely to be issued for southern and central Florida later Aug. 31.
 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to parts of the Bahamas, Aug. 31-Sept.3, and Florida, Sept. 1-2. Forecast models indicate that 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall could occur in the central Bahamas and 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) could fall in the northwestern Bahamas. Afterward, forecast model guidance shows potential for rainfall totals of 15-31 cm (6-12 inches) in coastal areas of the southeastern US with up to 46 cm (18 inches) possible in some areas leading to possible life-threatening flash floods. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches landfall. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Swells are likely on east-facing shores of the Bahamas, Florida, and southeastern US in the coming days. Swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Storm surge will raise water levels considerably above average in the northwestern Bahamas.

 

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Several regional airports in the Bahamas have already suspended operations. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), through Sept. 3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.
 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane conditions. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 30: 5:49 p.m. EST | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian intensifying as it tracks northwestward toward the Bahamas Aug. 30. Landfall possiblein Florida, US, Sept. 3.

Effective Aug. 30 at 21:46 GMT:

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: Atlantic Ocean, about 675 km (420 miles) east of Nassau, Bahamas
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 kts (210 kph, 130 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Possibly northern Bahamas (Sept. 1), Florida, US (Sept. 3)
  • Affected Areas: The Bahamas, Florida (US), Southeast US 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian has strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane and continues to track northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 30. As of 1700 AST Aug. 30, the storm's center of circulation was 675 km (420 miles) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas. Forecast models predict the storm will continue to strengthen as it traverses warm Atlantic waters. The latest guidance shows the system tracking farther south than previously projected, increasing the possibility of a landfall in the northern Bahamas, Sept. 1. Afterward, model guidance indicates landfall may occur on Florida's Atlantic coast, Sept. 3. Dorian is expected to eventually make a turn to the north as it approaches the US. However, uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Authorities in the Bahamas have issued emergency evacuations beginning Aug. 30 for several parts of the northwestern Bahamas. Additionally, officials have advised residents in coastal areas of Grand Bahama Island, including Sweeting's Cay, Deep Water Cay, Water Cay, West End, East End, Queen's Cove, Mclean's Town Cay, Gold Rock Creek, and the city of Freeport, to evacuate to the island's interior or leave the islands.

Florida officials issued a state of emergency Aug. 28 to facilitate preparation for the hurricane. A state of emergency is also in effect for southeastern counties in Georgia. Further precautionary measures are likely in the Bahamas and the Southeast US in the coming days, including additional evacuation orders.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 1700 AST Aug. 30, the US National Hurricane Center has upgraded the hurricane watches to hurricane warnings for Dorian in the northwest Bahamas, including the islands of Grand Bahama, Bimini, Berry Islands, North Eleuthera, North Andros, and New Providence. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Abaco.

New advisories are likely as Dorian veers westward and tracks toward the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days.

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to parts of the Bahamas from Aug. 31, and Florida from Sept. 1. Forecast models indicate that 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall could occur in the central Bahamas and 8-13 cm (3-5 inches) could fall in the northwestern Bahamas. Afterward, forecast model guidance shows potential for rainfall totals of 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) in coastal areas of the southeastern US with up to 38 cm (15 inches) possible in some areas. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches landfall. Flash flooding is likely. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are almost certain in the impact area in the coming days. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
 

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Regional airports in the Bahamas including Grand Bahama International Airport (FPO), Leonard M. Thompson International Airport (MHH) and Treasure Cay International Airport will suspend all flights beginning late Aug. 30 (TCB). Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds may cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), Sept. 1-3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.
 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where hurricane conditions are forecast. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 30: 12:43 p.m. | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian intensifying as it tracks northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 30. Landfall likely in Florida, US, Sept. 3.

Effective Aug. 30 at 16:41 GMT:

Click to enlarge Google Map.
  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: Atlantic Ocean, about 765 km (475 miles) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 95 kts (175 kph, 110 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Possibly northern Bahamas (Sept. 1), Florida, US (Sept. 3)
  • Affected Areas: The Bahamas, Florida (US), Southeast US 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to continue intensifying as it tracks northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 30. As of 1100 AST Aug. 30, the storm's center of circulation was 765 km (475 miles) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas. Dorian strengthened into a strong Category 2 storm Aug. 30, and forecast models predict the storm will continue to strengthen as it traverses warm Atlantic waters. The latest guidance shows the system tracking farther south than previously projected, increasing the possibility of a landfall in the northern Bahamas, Sept. 1. Afterward, model guidance indicates landfall will probably occur on Florida's Atlantic coast, Sept. 3. Dorian is expected to eventually make a turn to the north as it approaches the US. However, uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Florida officials issued a state of emergency Aug. 28 to facilitate preparation for the hurricane. A state of emergency is also in effect for southeastern counties in Georgia. Additional precautionary measures are likely in the Bahamas in the coming days.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 1100 AST Aug. 30, the US National Hurricane Center has issued Hurricane Watches for Dorian in the northwest Bahamas, including the islands of Abaco, Grand Bahama, Bimini, Berry Islands, North Eleuthera, North Andros, and New Providence.

New advisories are likely as Dorian veers westward and tracks toward the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days.



 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to parts of the Bahamas from Aug. 31, and Florida from Sept. 1. Forecast models indicate that 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall could occur in the central Bahamas and 8-13 cm (3-5 inches) could fall in the northwestern Bahamas. Afterward, forecast model guidance shows potential for rainfall totals of 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) in coastal areas of the southeastern US with up to 38 cm (15 inches) possible in some areas. Locally higher totals are possible, especially if Dorian slows down or stalls as it approaches landfall. Flash flooding is likely. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are almost certain in the impact area in the coming days. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

 

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Regional airports in the Bahamas will suspend all flights beginning Aug. 31. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, disrupting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds might cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), West Palm Beach (PBI), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), Sept. 1-3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where hurricane conditions are forecast. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 30: 1:52 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian intensifying as it tracks northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 30. Landfall likely in Florida, US, Sept. 2.

Click to access interactive map of the projected path of Hurricane Dorian.

Effective Aug. 30 at 05:48 GMT:

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: Atlantic Ocean, about 930 km (578 miles) southeast of Nassau, Bahamas, and 1,235 km (768 miles) southeast of Miami, Fla., US
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 kts (140 kph, 105 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Possibly northern Bahamas (Sept. 1), Florida, US (Sept. 2)
  • Affected Areas: The Bahamas, Florida (US), and Turks and Caicos Islands

Summary

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to continue intensifying as it tracks northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 30. As of 2300 AST Aug. 29, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 930 km (578 miles) southeast of Nassau, the Bahamas, and 1,235 (768 miles) southeast of Miami, Fla., US. Dorian strengthened into a Category 2 storm Aug. 29, and officials have warned that the system could become a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall. Forecast models indicate the system is tracking further south than previously projected, increasing the possibility of a landfall in the northern Bahamas, Sept. 1. Model guidance indicates landfall will probably occur on Florida's Atlantic coast, Sept. 2. However, uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path, landfall, and intensity could change in the coming days.

Florida officials issued a state of emergency Aug. 28 to facilitate preparation for the hurricane. A state of emergency is also in effect for southeastern counties in Georgia. Additional precautionary measures are likely in the Bahamas in the coming days.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 2300 AST Aug. 29, the US National Hurricane Center has no warnings in place for Dorian. New advisories are likely as Dorian veers westward and tracks toward the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days.

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to parts of the Bahamas from Aug. 31, and Florida from Sept. 1. Meteorologists predict that 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall could occur in the central Bahamas and 8-13 cm (3-5 inches) could fall in the northwestern Bahamas. As of Aug. 29, forecasts project that rainfall totals of 13-25 cm (5-10) inches will occur in coastal areas of the southeastern US; up to 38 cm (15 inches) of rain is possible in some areas. Flash flooding is likely. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are almost certain in the impact area in the coming days. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

 

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds might cause power outages and property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports, including those serving Nassau (NAS), Miami (MIA), Fort Lauderdale (FLL), Tampa (TPA), and Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), Sept. 1-3. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where hurricane conditions are forecast. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 29: 12:28 p.m. | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian tracking north of Puerto Rico Aug. 29. Landfall likely in Florida, US, Sept. 2.

Effective Aug. 29 at 16:25 GMT:

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 1,634 km (1,015 miles) southeast of Orlando, Fla.
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 kts (140 kph, 85 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Florida, US (Sept. 2)
  • Affected Areas: Bahamas, Florida (US), and Turks and Caicos Islands 

 

 

Summary

Hurricane Dorian continues to track in a northwesterly direction north of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 29. Dorian is forecast to strengthen further as it tracks towards the Bahamas, north of the Turks and Caicos Islands and towards Florida, US, through Sept. 2. As of 1100 AST Aug. 29, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,634 km (1,015 miles) southeast of Orlando, Fla. Forecast models indicate landfall will probably occur on Florida's central Atlantic coast, Sept. 2. However, uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path and intensity could change at short notice.

The impact on Puerto Rico was minimal. Florida officials issued a state of emergency Aug. 28 in order for officials to prepare for the hurricane. Additional precautionary measures are likely in the Bahamas in the coming days.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 1100 AST Aug. 29, the US National Hurricane Center has no warnings in place for Dorian. New advisories are likely as Dorian tracks toward Turks and Caicos Islands, Bahamas, and Florida in the coming days.

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to parts of the Bahamas from Aug. 30 or 31, and Florida Sept. 1 or 2. Flash flooding is possible. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are almost certain in the impact area in the coming days. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

 

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds might cause power outages and some property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where hurricane conditions are forecast. Heed all coastal evacuation orders if they are ordered. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 29: 12:19 a.m. EST | Critical Alert
Hurricane Dorian tracking northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 28. Landfall forecast in central Florida, US, Sept. 1.

Effective Aug. 29 at 04:16 GMT:

  • Incident: Hurricane Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: The Atlantic Ocean, approximately 90 km (55 miles) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 kts (130 kph, 80 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Central Florida, US (Sept. 1)
  • Affected Areas: Western North Atlantic Ocean; Turks and Caicos; The Bahamas; Florida, US 

 

 

Summary

Dorian has strengthened into a hurricane as it continues tracking northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 28. As of 2000 AST Aug. 28, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 90 km (55 miles) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen further in the coming days, likely intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane before it transits the Bahamas, Aug. 31. Forecast models indicate landfall will probably occur on Florida's central Atlantic coast, Sept. 1. However, uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path and intensity could change at short notice.

Authorities in Puerto Rico issued a state of emergency Aug. 26 ahead of the storm's arrival, but the storm moved much further east than previously projected after interacting with mountainous terrain on St. Lucia. Though Puerto Rico did not sustain severe damage, strong winds did impact Culebra and the US Virgin Islands. Some power outages occurred in the US Virgin Islands, where a curfew remains in place until the morning of Aug. 29. Immediate reports do not suggest there was widespread damage in the territory, but damage assessments were ongoing as of late Aug. 28. Florida officials issued a state of emergency Aug. 28, so officials can prepare for the hurricane.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 2000 Aug. 28, the US National Hurricane Center has lifted all coastal watches and warnings. Authorities in the British Virgin Islands have also removed a hurricane warning. New advisories are likely, as Dorian tracks through the region and approaches Florida. The proximity of the system's center of circulation to land will ultimately determine how significant the weather-related impacts will be.

 

Hazardous Conditions

Dorian will likely bring further heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to much of the impact area. Heavy rainfall remains possible in eastern Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands, through Aug. 29; rainfall totals could reach 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) in some areas. Flash flooding is possible, especially in areas where rain totals exceed 10 cm (4 inches). Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are almost certain in the impact area in the coming hours. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

 

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds might cause power outages and some property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where hurricane or tropical storm conditions are forecast. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 28: 7:34 a.m. | Critical Alert
TS Dorian continues to strengthen and set to impact Puerto Rico Aug. 28. Flooding and disruptions will almost certainly occur.

Effective Aug. 28 at 10:40 GMT:

  • Event: Tropical Storm Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: 300 km (186 miles) southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 kts (90 kph, 60 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Eastern Puerto Rico (Aug. 28)
  • Affected Areas: Eastern Caribbean, western North Atlantic Ocean, Florida

 

 

Summary

Tropical Storm Dorian is tracking northwestward near Puerto Rico, Aug. 28. As of 0500 AST Aug. 28, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 300 km (186 miles) southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen as it approaches and passes Puerto Rico, Aug. 28-29. Further strengthening is possible from Aug. 30 when the storm is forecast to obtain hurricane intensity near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path and intensity could change at short notice.

Dorian has already caused disruptions over various islands in the Lesser Antilles. Heavy rainfall has disrupted power supply in Barbados. Authorities in Puerto Rico issued a state of emergency Aug. 26 ahead of the storm's arrival. Schools on the island are closed Aug. 28.


 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 Aug. 28, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Tropical Storm Warning*: Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, US Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic (from Isla Saona to Samana).
  • Hurricane Watch*: Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the US Virgin Islands.
  • Tropical Storm Watch*: Dominican Republic (from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata)

*Tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours in areas under a Tropical Storm Warning and within 36 to 48 hours where a Tropical Storm Watch is active. Hurricane conditions are possible within 36 to 48 hours in areas under a Hurricane Watch.

Authorities will likely issue new advisories or update existing warnings as Dorian tracks through the islands. The proximity of the system's center of circulation to land will ultimately determine how significant the weather-related impacts will be.

 

Hazardous Weather/Conditions

Dorian will likely bring further heavy rainfall, flooding, and gusty winds to much of the impact area. Rain accumulations of 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) are likely from Guadeloupe to Saint Kitts to Anguilla. Southern and eastern Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands are likely to receive 10-15 cm (4-6 inches). Accumulations of up to 25 cm (10 inches) are forecast in some areas. Flash flooding is possible, especially in areas where rain totals exceed 10 cm (4 inches). Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are almost certain in the impact area in the coming hours. Flood control systems throughout the region will be stressed by the water volumes, and some protection measures - such as dams and reservoirs - could fail. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

 

Transport and Utilities

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are likely across the affected areas over the coming days. Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Landslides could also temporarily block some routes in hilly areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Winds might cause power outages and some property damage. High winds may trigger flight disruptions - including delays and cancellations - at regional airports. Hazardous sea conditions could prompt the temporary suspension of ferry services and port operations in areas near the storm's path.

Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where hurricane or tropical storm conditions are forecast. Heed all coastal evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions after the storm passes, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routsting shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

 


Aug. 27: 8:28 a.m. EST | Warning Alert
TS Dorian moving west near St. Lucia, early Aug. 27. Close approach to Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic likely from Aug. 28.

Effective Aug. 27 at 12:25 GMT:

  • Event: Tropical Storm Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: Atlantic Ocean, approximately 45 km (30 miles) southeast of St Lucia
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 43 kts (85 kph, 50 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Possible close approach near or south of Puerto Rico (Aug. 28); eastern Dominican Republic (late Aug. 28)
  • Affected Areas: Leeward Islands and Windward Islands, Lesser Antilles; Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, Greater Antilles 

 

Summary

Tropical Storm Dorian continues to track westward in the Atlantic Ocean. As of 0500 AST Aug. 27, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 45 km (30 miles) southeast of St. Lucia. Forecast models indicate that the storm will largely maintain its current strength as it tracks toward the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea over the coming hours. The storm is forecast to intensify as it passes near southern Puerto Rico, Aug. 28, and move near or over the eastern Dominican Republic late Aug. 28, before moving north over Hispaniola Aug. 29. The islands will likely see severe storm and possible hurricane effects from Aug. 28. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path and intensity could change at short notice. Forecasts indicate that some wind and rain impacts are possible in the Bahamas and parts of Florida, US, from around Aug. 31-Sept.1, depending on the progress of the storm.

 

Weather Warnings

As of 0500 Aug. 27, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Tropical Storm Warning*: Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Hurricane Watch*: Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic (from Isla Saona to Samana)
  • Tropical Storm Watch*: Dominica, Grenada, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Dominican Republic (from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque and Samana to Puerto Plata)

*Tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours in areas under a Tropical Storm Warning and within 36 to 48 hours where a Tropical Storm Watch is active. Hurricane conditions are possible within 36 to 48 hours in areas under a Hurricane Watch.

Authorities will likely issue new advisories or update existing warnings as Dorian tracks through the islands. The proximity of the system's center of circulation to land will ultimately determine how significant the weather-related impacts will be.

 

Hazardous Weather
 

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds to much of the Lesser Antilles, Aug. 27-29. Rain accumulations of 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) are likely across parts of the Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic could receive 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 cm (6 inches). Flash flooding is possible, especially in areas where rain totals exceed 10 cm (4 inches).

Even if the system does not make landfall, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely along portions of the Lesser Antilles over the coming hours, as well as along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from Aug. 28.

Ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are possible across the affected areas over the coming days. Winds might cause power outages and some property damage. Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.


 

Advice

Monitor updated tropical forecasts over the coming days. Review and be prepared to implement continuity measures in the event of potential landfall. If the storm begins affecting land operations, limit unnecessary driving in affected regions until it passes. Avoid traveling in elevated areas, which are prone to mudslides, during severe inclement weather. Use caution around streams, rivers, and other flood-prone areas. Plan accordingly for potential urban flooding and transportation disruptions. Confirm all transport operations before travel.


Aug. 26: 2:19 p.m. EST | Warning Alert
TS Dorian moving west toward the Lesser Antilles, Aug. 26. Close approach to Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent likely.

Effective Aug. 26 at 18:17 UTC:

  • Event: Tropical Storm Dorian
  • Center of Circulation: Atlantic Ocean, approximately 225 km (140 miles) east-southeast of Barbados
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 kts (90 kph, 60 mph)
  • Projected Landfall (Date): Possible close approach to Barbados (Aug. 26); St. Vincent and the Grenadines and St. Lucia (Aug. 27)
  • Affected Areas: Leeward Islands and Windward Islands, Lesser Antilles 

 

Summary

Tropical Storm Dorian continues to track westward in the Atlantic Ocean. As of 1100 AST Aug. 26, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 225 km (140 miles) east-southeast of Barbados. Forecast models indicate that the storm will largely maintain its current strength as it tracks toward the Lesser Antilles over the coming hours. The storm may make landfall on the Windward Islands as it passes through the area late Aug. 26, but the islands will likely see severe storm effects even if the eye does not pass directly over any of them.

The more recent forecast model guidance suggests Dorian will make a close approach to Barbados, Aug. 26, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines and St. Lucia, Aug. 27. Further projections indicate that the system may strengthen into a hurricane once it enters the Caribbean Sea. A subsequent landfall could occur in the Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico, Aug. 29, with Dorian later moving toward the Bahamas, Aug. 30. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast, and the storm's projected path and intensity could change at short notice.


 

Weather Warnings

As of early Aug. 26, the following warnings, watches, and advisories have been issued in response to the storm:

  • Tropical Storm Warning*: Barbados, Martinique, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Hurricane Watch: St. Lucia
  • Tropical Storm Watch*: Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat

*Tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours in areas under a Tropical Storm Warning and within 36 to 48 hours where a Tropical Storm Watch is active.

Authorities in the Lesser Antilles will likely issue new advisories or update existing warnings as Dorian draws closer - the proximity of the system's center of circulation to land will ultimately determine how significant the weather-related impacts will be.

 

Hazardous Weather

Dorian will likely bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds to much of the Lesser Antilles, Aug. 26-28. Rain accumulations of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are likely across portions of the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands - including Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia - as the storm transits the Caribbean.

Even if the system does not make landfall, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely along the coastlines of Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Lucia. If the system comes close enough to cause adverse weather conditions, ground, air, and maritime transport disruptions are possible. Residual disruptions could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days for any floodwaters and related debris to be cleared or for necessary repair work to conclude.

 

Advice
 

Those with business interests or travel arrangements in the southeastern Caribbean should closely monitor updated tropical forecasts over the coming days. Review and be prepared to implement business continuity measures in the event of potential landfall. If the storm begins affecting land operations, limit unnecessary driving in affected regions until it passes. Avoid traveling in elevated areas, which are prone to mudslides, during severe inclement weather. Use caution around streams, rivers, and other flood-prone areas. Plan accordingly for potential urban flooding and transportation disruptions. Confirm all transport operations before travel.

 

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