Background and Analysis

Armenia’s President, Nikol Pashinyan signed a Russian-brokered peace deal that effectively ends Armenia's decades-old conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave on Nov. 9. The move came after Armenian and Karabakhi forces suffered a series of major setbacks in the latest spate of hostilities in the region, which erupted on Sept. 27. The Nov. 8 capture of the city of Shusha by Azerbaijani forces dealt the most severe blow to Armenia's war effort both militarily and from a morale standpoint. It is doubtful whether Pashinyan's government will be able to survive the lack of success on the battlefield followed by an agreement that the Armenian public essentially views as an act of surrender to Azerbaijan; opposition parties could press for a parliamentary vote of no confidence in an effort to remove him.

Under the accord, a contingent of Russian peacekeepers will deploy along the line of contact and to secure the Lachin corridor as Armenian forces withdraw. Armenia must return the Kalbajar District to Azerbaijan by Nov. 15, the Agdam District by Nov. 20, and the Lachin District by Dec. 1. Armenia must also establish a corridor by which travelers and goods may transit directly between Azerbaijan and the ethnic-Azeri enclave of Nakhchevan; Armenia will also be responsible for guaranteeing safe passage along the route. Similarly, Azerbaijan will guarantee safe passage between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh via the Lachin corridor.

In this briefing, WorldAware analyst, Tumi Wallace, outlines the peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the likely repercussions for Armenia in the near-term.

Watch now to learn:

  • The terms of the negotiated peace deal
  • Likely near-term impact to Armenia's government