As federal forces carry out operations in the restive region of Tigray, WorldAware's Global Risk Services team analyzes the current situation and the possibility of Ethiopia deteriorating into civil war.
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Background of Situation
Political tensions between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigray state remain elevated following the parties' dispute over the August 20 general elections' deferral. Tigray state held regional elections in September, defying the resolution on the polls reached by the Ethiopian Parliament, the House of Federation (HoF). Tigray officials said PP has no authority as its term expired Oct. 5; hence, it will not adhere to new federal laws and regulations.TPLF officials have threatened that Tigray could unilaterally secede from Ethiopia if the federal government launches armed conflict in the country. Such moves are likely to trigger a territorial dispute with the neighboring Amhara region, sparking clashes along their common border.
The current clashes between the federal forces and Tigrean militias are a continuation of the fractious relationship the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has had with the TPLF and other Tigrayan groups. The current elevated tension is the latest display of the long-running power struggle between the Prime Minister and Tigrayan elites who disapprove of extensive reforms put forward by the current administration. The TPLF has refused to join the ruling Prosperity Party (PP), a new merger of former ruling coalition partners due to Ahmed's perceived attack on Tigrayan political elites and interests.
About the Intelligence Briefing
Join our regional analysts for a discussion of the drivers behind the fighting, how the conflict could develop, and what this means for businesses operating in Ethiopia and in the wider region. Our experts will address:
- Expert analysis of the current situation in Tigray state and the greater Ethiopia region
- Possible triggers for escalation
- The different scenarios in which the government could resolve the situation
- Tips to safeguard your organization and its people operating in Ethiopia
- Opportunity to ask questions for the panel experts to answer
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