Notification: Middle East - Iranian General Killed

Alert Details:

Increased security, transport, business disruptions, and retaliatory attacks likely after US killing of Iranian general in Baghdad, Jan. 3

 

Locations affected by this alert: Bahrain, BALAD*, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen

 

This Alert began Jan 03, 2020 07:14 UTC and is scheduled to expire Jan 10, 2020 23:59 UTC.

 
  • Incident: Iranian general killed
  • Locations: Multiple countries (map)
  • Date: Jan. 3
  • Impact: Increased security measures; possible retaliatory attacks, additional violence, localized transport and business disruptions

Summary
Countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and several others in the Persian Gulf and Levant will likely put in place additional security measures following the US killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani and several prominent Iraqi Shi'a militia leaders, including Abu Mahdi al-Mohandis, near Baghdad International Airport (BGW) early Jan. 3. The US Department of Defense confirmed Jan. 3 that it was behind the airstrike that killed Soleimani and his associates.

The US military, as well as the armed forces of several countries throughout the Middle East, will likely be placed on high security alert. Social media reports indicate that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have already been placed on high alert due to the fear of retaliatory attacks by Iranian proxies in Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Lebanon.

Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Israel, which has been targeted with drones and missiles in the past, will almost certainly heighten security throughout their major cities. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed to deliver a swift response to the perpetrators of the attack. Iran has also declared three days of official mourning.

The killing of Soleimani has raised concerns that Iran and its proxies will conduct retaliatory attacks against the US, its interests, and regional allies throughout the region. Followers and supporters of Shi'a militias in Iraq and in the wider region will likely hold large rallies and demonstrations in the coming days, resulting in transport and commercial disruptions. Attacks against and demonstrations outside foreign diplomatic missions, particularly countries that are allied with Israel and the US, cannot be ruled out. Clashes between security forces and demonstrators are likely, especially if the protesters are overly disruptive.

Background and Analysis
Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force, which is the external wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and focuses on special and clandestine operations outside Iran. Soleimani was the main architect of Iran's military adventures and played a pivotal role in the country's activities in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Soleimani was also Iran's most formidable military commander and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's favorite military commander. Khamenei awarded Soleimani with the Order of Zulfiqar in March 2019, which is the country's most prestigious award, and no military commander had received it since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. Retaliatory attacks by Iran and its proxies remain likely; however, what form or shape these actions will take remain to be seen.

The recent incident comes a few days after hundreds of Shi'a militia supporters stormed the US Embassy in Baghdad, setting several parts of the facility on fire, Dec. 31. The attack against the embassy prompted the US to deploy additional security forces to the facility. The attack also brought about the suspension of all consular operations until further notice by the US Department of State. According to the US Department of Defense, Soleimani was planning further attacks on American assets and positions in Iraq and the wider region.

The recent incident marks a significant escalation in US-Iran tensions in the region. US President Donald J. Trump accused Iran of having orchestrated the attack against the US Embassy and pledged retaliation against any further anti-US action. Iran has denied the accusation.

The trigger for the recent series of incidents was a rocket attack against the K-1 Airbase in Kirkuk, killing one US defense contractor and injuring four military personnel. Following the rocket attack, the US conducted airstrikes against Kata'ib Hizballah (KH) military bases in Iraq and Syria Dec. 29, which left 25 members of the group dead and more than 50 others injured. The US deemed KH responsible for the attack against K-1 Airbase.

Advice
Avoid all gatherings and rallies. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Plan for delays to diplomatic services and government operations in the coming days. Reconfirm business appointments. If incoming artillery fire is reported in the general vicinity, stay indoors, away from windows and exterior walls, and, if possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Check flight status before departing for airports if traveling via airports within the aforementioned countries. Do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed.