Venezuela: Opposition coalition banned from presidential elections /update 1

Event

Venezuela’s Supreme Court has banned the main opposition coalition MUD (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática) from entering a candidate in the upcoming presidential elections. This announcement could result in protests, particularly in areas where the opposition has traditionally enjoyed the largest support (e.g. Caracas, San Cristóbal, Mérida). In any event, an increase in the frequency and intensity of street protests is likely in the run-up to the vote (and following the announcement of the results), along with incidents of political violence (assassinations, arrests, etc.).

Furthermore, a number of political opposition leaders will not be permitted to run in the election, as they have been jailed, forced into exile, or barred from running for public office due to past charges.

A date for the election has not yet been determined, but is slated to occur by April 30.

Context

The newly established and controversial legislative body, the Constituent Assembly, ordered that presidential elections take place in Venezuela by the end of April 2018. The political opposition and much of the international community has condemned the sudden decision, stating the April 30 deadline does not leave enough time to properly organize the vote. Most observers believe that a single opposition candidate would beat incumbent President Nicolás Maduro in free and fair elections. 

In the first half of 2017 Venezuela was shaken by four months of violent anti-government protests, coinciding with ongoing political, economic, social, and health crises. While the incidence of protests has fallen significantly in recent months, the potential for further large-scale protests and associated violence endures. More than 120 people were killed in the 2017 protests, the majority by security forces who have repeatedly been accused of excessive use of force.

Advice

Individuals in Venezuela are advised to strictly avoid all protests due to the likelihood of violence and to keep abreast of the sociopolitical climate.