Sudan: Further violence is likely nationwide, particularly in Khartoum, as of April 30 /update 17

Event

Further clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain likely nationwide over the coming days. The ceasefire implemented from 00:01 April 25 and due to expire on April 27 was extended through 23:59 April 30. However, SAF and RSF forces have not fully abided by the ceasefire. In Khartoum and elsewhere, gunfire and explosions have been reported early April 30, indicating a possible collapse of the truce. The ceasefire has allowed evacuation efforts carried out by various foreign governments and international organizations. Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have been intermittently reported nationwide, while food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies are becoming critical, notably in Khartoum.

Since April 15, airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several cities. The casualty toll from fighting across the country has reportedly surpassed 528 civilian deaths, including at least two US nationals, and about 4,599 wounded. Casualty figures will likely increase over the coming days.

Travel disruptions
Sudanese officials had closed civilian airspace at least until April 30; it is unclear whether it will reopen once the deadline expires. As of early April 30, operations at KRT remain suspended. While officials in Chad closed the country's land border with Sudan until further notice from April 15 due to the clashes, other neighboring countries have not formally made any announcement; land borders are most likely subject to heightened surveillance by border military forces. Reports indicate that thousands of people have crossed the land borders with Libya, Chad, CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt to flee the violence.

Khartoum
As of April 30, large areas of the city remain contested, including in the city center near KRT, the Presidential Palace, and the Army Command, as well as in Khartoum North, the twin city of Omdurman, and along the Nile near bridges. There were reports of SAF airstrikes targeting RSF positions in Omdurman and Khartoum North on April 28. It is unclear if the SAF or the RSF retains control of key infrastructure and installations, though de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated on April 22 that the SAF control all the country's airports except for Nyala Airport (UYL) and KRT, which remain contested. The veracity of Burhan's statement cannot be independently confirmed. The continued fighting between RSF and SAF has prompted power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are either out of service or running at very low capabilities due to damage and lack of medicines.

The situation has caused an uptick in criminal incidents, with frequent reports of looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Civilians fleeing Khartoum and evacuation convoys have been attacked by indirect fire or criminal elements. A French soldier sustained a gunshot during an evacuation mission in Khartoum on April 23. It remains unclear who is responsible. It is reported that rebels freed inmates from several prisons, including the Kober prison in Khartoum, on April 23.

In addition, WHO representatives raised concerns on April 25 over biological risks due to the occupation of a health lab by combatants in central Khartoum.

Elsewhere
Since April 15, clashes have also been reported in El Obeid, Ad-Damazin, El Fasher, Geneina, El Obeid, Merowe, Nyala, and Port Sudan. Other locations have likely been impacted. As of April 28, the security situation is particularly deteriorating in West Darfur, where concerns grow over a possible escalation of communal tensions due to the security vacuum. Heavy clashes opposing rival tribes have been reported in Geneina, along with an unspecified number of civilian casualties. The looting of police stations has reportedly provided civilians with heavy weapons. It is unclear whether SAF or RSF forces were implicated in the violence. In response, authorities from the state of Gedaref have declared a monthlong state of emergency starting April 30, banning the informal selling or hoarding of petrol and the commerce of firearms. It is unclear whether the previously active state of emergency in the States of South Kordofan and West Darfur remain active.

Violence could likely intensify as the ceasefire expires. Rival security forces will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport nodes. Further announcements of state of emergencies are likely. Related disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to basic goods are likely. The implementation of curfews is also possible.

Context

Clashes began at approximately 09:00 on April 15 and were triggered by persistent tensions between the two security groups. Both the RSF and SAF have blamed the other for initiating the violence. The government has labeled the RSF a 'rebel' force. The recent fighting between the SAF and RSF is a continuation of a years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the leader of the RSF, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have quarreled over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF, effectively resulting in Hemedti losing control over the former.

Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December. Under the signed framework, the formation of a transitional civilian government was scheduled in early April; however, several issues hindered the deal's implementation, including the abovementioned disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over the integration of the RSF into the military.

The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down an uprising in Darfur in 2003. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.

Advice

Shelter in place until the clashes end. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations for possible evacuation orders. Persons planning to travel to Sudan should defer travel until the situation stabilizes. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm the status of road routes if travel is unavoidable. Travel with identification. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.

Resources

French Embassy in Sudan
US Embassy in Sudan
UK Foreign Travel Advice
Australian Government (Smartraveller)
Government of Canada - Sudan Travel Advice
German Embassy in Sudan
Embassy of Japan in Sudan