India: Tight security, recurring internet restrictions likely in parts of Manipur State through at least end-February amid ongoing tensions /update 22

Internet and movement restrictions, security deployment, and protests are almost certain to persist in Manipur State through at least end-February due to ongoing ethnic tensions. Authorities are imposing a five-day suspension of internet services, including data and Virtual Private Network (VPN) services, in Churachandpur district from 01:40 Feb. 16. The action comes after a mob of approximately 300 people attempted to storm the office of the Superintendent of Police in Churachandpur evening of Feb. 15, which resulted in at least three fatalities and over 30 injuries. Existing public gathering restrictions under Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC) will continue across Manipur through at least Feb. 18. Authorities may impose additional restrictions, including curfews in other areas based on evolving operational needs.

Further security incidents remain possible. In recent months, several isolated incidents involving gunfire exchanges and small-scale explosions have occurred between security forces and militants, primarily in Bishnupur, Imphal West, Moreh, Thoubal, and Kangpokpi districts. Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations; such attacks usually result in localized curfews, security patrols, and related protests.

Demonstrations of varying types may occur in the coming weeks, primarily over demands to create a "separate administration" for the Kuki-Zi minority community. Recurrent shutdown strikes by various groups remain likely; shutdown strikes were previously held following clashes between the Meitei groups and Kuki militants. Popular rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings typically draw thousands of participants. Road blockades have previously negatively impacted the distribution of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, to Manipur, especially to and from Imphal Valley. Authorities have attempted to circumvent such blockades by using aircraft and military convoys to deliver essential goods. Earlier protests have also disrupted access routes to Imphal's Bir Tikendrajit International Airport (IMF).

Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely.