05 Jan 2024 | 02:33 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of early January /update 246
Combat is ongoing in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine as of early January; Ukraine maintains mostly defensive stance.
Combat operations between Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine as of early January. The most intense combat continues to be reported in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. Minor engagements continue in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Kyiv's forces have adopted an increasingly defensive stance in recent weeks following months of high-tempo operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russian forces report occasional gains; however, major operations will likely remain suspended into early 2024. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain a presence on the left bank of the Dnieper River; however, no significant advances have been made, and Russian counterattacks are ongoing. Russian artillery fire continues to target most regions bordering Russia; airstrikes have increased in intensity and tempo in early January hitting Ukrainian cities nationwide.
Russian forces have increasingly seized offensive momentum in the Donetsk Region; Moscow's troops successfully conquered the town of Marinka, following a series of costly offensive maneuvers. Daily assaults on Avdiivka are ongoing, although no significant advance has been reported as of early January. Ukrainian forces are subject to increasing pressure in the Bakhmut area, where Russian forces launch continuous attacks occasionally reporting incremental gains. Moscow's troops maintain pressure on Ukrainian lines in the area of Kupyansk although no major operation has been reported. Russian forces have reportedly made incremental gains towards Kreminna in early January.
Overall, Russian forces appear to be suffering high casualty rates throughout most of the line of contact; Ukrainian forces repel most assaults on their lines, however, Kyiv's troops have likely suffered considerable losses over the summer offensive campaign, and will likely maintain a defensive stance through winter. Russian assaults will likely maintain an increased offensive tempo in these areas in the coming weeks.
Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in positional engagements in most of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as of early January. Combat will likely continue in southern Zaporizhzhia with alternating attacks and counterattacks by both sides without significant changes. Russian forces may resume major operations in early 2024.
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's northern, central, and western regions continue to increase in frequency and intensity as of early January. Major airstrikes reportedly occurred on Dec. 29-30, recording over 120 civilian casualties in a series of airstrikes involving loitering munitions and missiles. Ukrainian air defense systems continue to report a high rate of interception. Nonetheless, falling missile debris continues to pose a risk of causing damage and casualties.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.
Offensive activity will likely increase as wintry conditions set in. Russia may seek to capitalize on the relative Ukrainian pause in offensive operations to reposition forces for coming offensives and strengthen its ongoing offensive operations. Russia's forces will likely resume major offensive operations once winter weather has frozen now-sodden ground, making it suitable for heavy equipment maneuvers. Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have all but concluded, having delivered limited gains since they began in July. Kyiv will likely increasingly focus on digging in defensively and deep strikes on Russian logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots.
Russian forces will likely continue intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI) as freezing temperatures set in. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine demonstrated exceptional reconstruction capabilities over the previous winter; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI, stretching Kyiv's capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.
