05 Jan 2024 | 03:41 AM UTC
Israel, PT: Cross-border violence to continue in Gaza Strip through at least end January /update 29
Cross-border violence to persist through at least end January in Gaza Strip.
Fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants will almost certainly continue in the Gaza Strip through at least end January. Cross-border violence will also continue for the duration of the fighting. Neighboring and regional countries are continuing their efforts to bring about another ceasefire to release additional hostages that Hamas holds in the Gaza Strip.
Since the initial Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, Gaza-based militants have fired thousands of rockets, missiles, and mortars toward cities in the center and south of the country, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Moreover, the Lebanese militant group Hizballah continues to launch rockets and drones against targets in northern Israel, with Israeli forces carrying out retaliatory strikes on Hizballah sites in southern Lebanon. Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militant group, has also claimed responsibility for ground infiltrations from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Yemen's Al-Houthis also continue to launch projectile attacks against Israel's south and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The Yemeni rebel group has stated that it will launch further attacks so long as the war continues.
Gaza and the West Bank
As part of its Operation Swords of Iron, the IDF has launched major retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza. The operation has killed more than 22,000 people and wounded more than 57,000 others in the territory. Israeli authorities have also ordered a full siege of Gaza, cutting power, water, and gas amid the fighting; major disruptions to internet service and other telecommunications have also been reported. The Israeli government continues to issue instructions to Palestinians as to which area to evacuate to in Gaza as it pursues its objective of eliminating Hamas and its key leaders.
Additionally, violence has surged between Palestinians and Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank, with Palestinian authorities claiming that at least 300 Palestinians have been killed in the territory since the Oct. 7 assault. Palestinian groups have also staged general strikes to show support for residents of Gaza. Further incidents of civil unrest and clashes are likely throughout the West Bank.
Israeli Ground Offensive
The IDF is continuing to conduct raids into Gaza and, per Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, expand its attacks in the territory via land, air, and sea. As the IDF ramps up its ground operations in Gaza, it will likely continue to increase artillery strikes and airstrikes on the territory and escalate maritime operations in nearby coastal waters. Israel has called up some 360,000 reservists for duty, many of whom have deployed to areas around Gaza to support the ongoing ground operations. Numerous Israeli communities have been evacuated near the Gaza border, including Sderot. Israel has designated a closed military zone around Gaza and closed a 5 km- (3 mile-) wide strip along the nation's border with Lebanon, prohibiting public access.
Political Response
Netanyahu has declared Israel to be at war, and Israeli military officials also assert that the country is prepared to defend against military action by Hizballah militants in Lebanon. Authorities have declared a state of national civil emergency across Israel; the move enables law enforcement officers to exercise additional authority. Netanyahu and opposition leaders have formed an emergency government and established a war cabinet.
International diplomatic efforts continue in an attempt to secure a long-term cessation of hostilities in Gaza.
Travel Disruptions
The conflict has caused significant flight disruptions in Israel, with the Israel Airports Authority temporarily closing multiple airports in central and southern areas of the country. While Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) remains open as of Jan. 5, several airlines have canceled flights to and from the facility. Nevertheless, Israeli flag carrier EL AL Israel Airlines (LY) is still operating flights serving TLV, albeit on modified schedules. Flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are likely at TLV and other airports in Israel until the situation stabilizes and rocket fire from Gaza subsides. Moreover, officials may suspend all flight operations at TLV on short notice in response to conflict developments. The Civil Aviation Authority has also banned sports and leisure flights from Israeli airspace until further notice.
The IDF has closed roads near the border with Gaza, including Route 4 from the Zikim junction to Netiv Ha'asara, Route 34 from the Yad Mordechai junction to Nir Am, and Route 232 from Mefalsim to Sa'ad and Nir Yitzhak to Kerem Shalom. Authorities have also closed the Zikim beach on the Gaza border and suspended train services between Ashkelon and Sderot. Crossings between the West Bank and Israel are either closed or under surveillance. The Rafah crossing has reportedly opened on a limited basis for foreign nationals, dual-passport holders, and some of the most seriously injured to cross from Gaza into Egypt since Nov. 1. The Rafah crossing had previously opened for humanitarian aid, but substantive damage to roads and continued Israeli airstrikes in the area are hindering access. For further information on border crossing status, click here.
Tactical Analysis
Heightened security measures and disruptions to transport and business will almost certainly continue across Israel over at least the short term. Tight security is likely at all Israeli ports of entry. The status of border crossings, airports, seaports, roads, and rail services may change in response to conflict developments.
Anti-Israel militants may stage opportunistic attacks from within the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and/or Israeli cities and towns. Conflict-related demonstrations have been reported in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and additional rallies are likely in both locations. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces are possible at any demonstrations that materialize.
Reconsider nonessential travel to Israel and the Palestinian Territories until the situation stabilizes. Reconfirm flights and the status of roads and border crossings. Arrive early at airports to allow additional time for processing. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel.
Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group, launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7, infiltrating numerous locations in the south of the country. Dubbed Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, it was the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. The attack coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and came one day after the 50th anniversary of the start of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The IDF engaged Hamas in ground-based fighting in southern Israel for days after the militants' initial assault and has since regained control of all Israeli communities along the Israel-Gaza border. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the Hamas attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have celebrated it.
