India: Authorities increase security nationwide for temple consecration in Ayodhya Jan. 22

Authorities are increasing security nationwide in anticipation of the consecration of the Ram Mandir temple in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, Jan. 22, as Hindu temples nationwide will mark the occasion with ceremonies through the evening of Jan. 22. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will participate in the consecration of the temple. Over 8,000 guests, including diplomats, several dignitaries, and Hindu religious heads will join the main event, which will occur on a site awarded to Hindu groups by the Supreme Court of India following an enduring ownership dispute with Muslim groups. Authorities have significantly bolstered security measures at locations throughout India as a precaution to prevent communal violence and potential terror attacks; these increased security measures will remain in place until at least Republic Day on Jan. 26. Additional security forces have deployed nationwide, with measures especially tight in Delhi and other urban centers, prominent Hindu religious sites, and locations throughout Uttar Pradesh State. Government offices and/or educational institutions will remain closed on Jan. 22 in multiple states like Chhattisgarh, Goa, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh to facilitate Hindus attending and/or watching the ceremony; additional regions may declare such holidays. The sales of meat and liquor will also be banned in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh states on the event day; similar closures are possible in other states.

Other events in Ayodhya, in addition to the consecration, include a fireworks and lamp display that will occur along Sarayu River Ghat, the evening of Jan. 22. Heightened security deployment and traffic restrictions are certain at event venues and along routes used by Prime Minister Modi. Over 12, 000 military and police personnel will deploy to the city. Security checkpoints, river patrols, air surveillance, cordons, and checks are certain, especially in view of reported terror threats targeting the ceremony. Overcrowding and an increased risk of opportunistic crime are possible at event venues; similar risks will persist as tens of thousands of devotees are likely to visit Ayodhya in the coming weeks, increasing demand for hotels and transport services. Significant protests or violence are unlikely.

Officials are banning the entry of heavy vehicles into Ayodhya Jan. 18-23; nonessential vehicles except those of invitees may also not enter Ayodhya Jan. 21-22. Diversions will affect access routes to Ayodhya, mainly affecting National Highway (NH) 27. Traffic curbs are certain along the Lucknow-Ayodhya section of NH 27 where a green corridor for dignitaries is planned. Authorities will likely reroute or curtail public transport serving Ayodhya District; trains will also not stop at the Ayodhya Dham Junction railway station on Jan. 22. Increased scrutiny and processing times will affect local transport hubs like railway stations and the Ayodhya International Airport (AYJ). Flight delays may occur as over 100 charter flights are expected to land in AYJ for the event. Commercial disruptions are possible due to the likely closure of local businesses and/or employees' difficulties to reach workplaces.

Celebratory gatherings and/or protests denouncing the event may prompt communal clashes between groups of Hindus and Muslims at locations throughout India. Such incidents are more likely in Uttar Pradesh and other parts of northern India, though unrest associated with the historic Ayodhya dispute is possible throughout the country, including in major cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, and Hyderabad. Although police are typically quick to quell unrest, any riots that occur could result in arson, vandalism, and targeted attacks. Violence could quickly spread to nearby communities.

Authorities may impose Section 144 orders, which prohibit unauthorized gatherings of more than five people, in multiple districts throughout Uttar Pradesh and other areas as a precautionary measure. Additional security restrictions, including curfews and telecommunication curbs, are also possible in affected areas if major incidents of violence occur.