Arabian Sea: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej tracking northwestward towards southeastern Yemen as of early Oct. 23 /update 3

Event

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej is tracking northwestward in the Arabian Sea to the north of Socotra Island early Oct. 23. As of 06:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 309 km (192 miles) south-southwest of Salalah, Oman.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken but remain at very severe cyclonic storm strength as it continues to track northwestward and makes landfall over Al-Mahrah Governorate in southeastern Yemen late Oct. 23. The system is forecast to weaken rapidly into a cyclonic storm as it tracks northwestward across Al-Mahrah Governorate through the afternoon of Oct. 24 before dissipating over central Hadramaut Governorate early Oct. 25. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

Authorities in Oman have evacuated residents in the Al Halaniyat Islands in Dhofar Governorate and the coastal areas of Salalah, Rakhyut, and Dhalkut wilayats and have also evacuated the Sultan Qaboos Hospital in Salalah, Dhofar Governorate, due to the adverse weather. Officials in Oman have declared a two-day holiday Oct. 23-24 for private and public businesses in Dhofar Governorate and Al Jazar Wilayat in Al Wusta Governorate. Schools in Dhofar Governorate and Al Jazar Wilayat in Al Wusta Governorate are closed through at least Oct. 24. Authorities have suspended port operations at Salalah port from late Oct. 22.

Authorities in Yemen have advised vessels to return to shore due to rough seas caused by the storm and people in Socotra Island have been advised to remain out of valleys and other flood channels due to heavy rainfall as Tej passes the island.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Oman Directorate General of Meteorology
Yemen Meteorological Services