Ukraine: Showers and storms forecast to continue across much of the country through June 22 /update 39

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Showers and storms are forecast to continue across much of Ukraine through June 15. Rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to persist in western regions through at least June 20, with the heaviest downpours likely June 17. Light rainfall is forecast across much of the rest of the country June 15 and in eastern regions June 16. Isolated showers and storms are possible in eastern and southern regions June 17-18 and central regions June 17. More concentrated storms are likely in central and southern regions June 19-20, as well as isolated storms in northern regions. Downpours may be heavy at times and storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, hail, and lightning. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in affected areas, and strong winds could cause property damage and power outages. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly above the average for the time of year across most of Ukraine over the coming days, with maximums ranging from around 30 C (86 F) in central regions June 17-18 down to around 18-19 C (64-66 F) in western regions June 16-17.

Widespread disruptions are ongoing across parts of Kherson Region and surrounding areas as of June 15 following the apparent intentional destruction of the Kakhovka Dam June 6. The large volume of water discharged from the dam's reservoir caused widespread flooding along the banks of the lower Dnieper River, flooding dozens of towns and villages. Authorities have reported at least ten fatalities associated with the flooding, 20 others injured, and dozens are reportedly missing. Thousands of people have been evacuated from both Ukrainian- and Russian-controlled areas on either bank of the river and many people in the surrounding areas have been left without access to clean drinking water. Floodwaters have begun to recede as of June 15; however, disruptions are likely to be ongoing across the affected area for a considerable period of time. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center is maintaining the highest level hydrological warnings for the lower Dnieper sub-basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Red fire hazard warnings (the lowest of two warning levels) have also been issued across parts of central, northwestern, southwestern, and western Ukraine. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Light rainfall forecast June 15 and June 21. Showers with possible thunderstorms June 17. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 16 and 18-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-28 C (73-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 13-17 C (55-63 F).

• Luhansk: Light rainfall forecast June 15-18, with thunderstorms possible June 17-18. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures 22-27 C (72-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-17 C (57-63 F).

• Donetsk: Light rainfall forecast June 15-18, with thunderstorms possible June 17-18. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-28 C (73-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-18 C (57-64 F).

• Mariupol: Light rainfall forecast June 15-18, with thunderstorms possible June 17-18. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures 23-27 C (73-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 18-22 C (64-72 F).

• Kherson: Light rainfall forecast June 15. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 16 and 21. Showers with possible thunderstorms June 17-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 25-31 C (77-88 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 16-20 C (61-68 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Light rainfall forecast June 15-16. Showers with possible thunderstorms June 17-20. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 21. Maximum daytime temperatures 19-28 C (66-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 13-19 C (55-66 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light rainfall forecast June 15-17 and light-to-moderate rainfall June 21. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 18-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 24-28 C (75-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 15-16 C (59-61 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast June 15-17 and June 21. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 18-20 Maximum daytime temperatures 24-27 C (75-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 14-15 C (57-59 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast June 15-18 and June 21. Partly cloudy with little precipitation June 19-20. Maximum daytime temperatures 24-28 C (75-82 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 17-18 C (63-64 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain southerly into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of June 15, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following warnings across areas bordering Ukraine:

• Orange storm warning (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Krasnodar Kray.

• Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Kursk and Rostov oblasts, Krasnodar Kray, and parts of Crimea.

• Yellow forest fire warnings: Belgorod, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts.

• Yellow fog warnings: Krasnodar Kray and parts of Crimea.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Conditions are likely to become more conducive for large-scale military operations during the summer months. After the muddy conditions caused by thawing snow and spring rains have eased, the harder ground will make troop movements easier. Warmer temperatures will also mean troops are able to stay out in the field for more extended periods of time. Clearer skies provide better visibility for aerial reconnaissance; however, increased foliage also improves the ability to conceal positions. Although conditions will generally be more favorable, periods of heavy rainfall are still possible during summer storms, especially during early summer, bringing wet and stormy conditions that may hamper military operations. Other environmental threats such as forest fires and extreme temperatures could also impact operations during the warmer months of the year.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring