Ukraine: Mild temperatures with occasional showers forecast across much of the region through May 18 /update 34

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Relatively mild temperatures with occasional spells of rain are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least May 18. Showers are forecast in eastern regions May 11 and northeastern regions May 12. Mainly dry conditions with an occasional isolated shower are forecast across the country May 13-14. Light rainfall is possible in eastern and far western regions May 15 before more widespread rainfall is expected across Ukraine from May 16. Temperatures are expected to rise a few degrees over the coming days, from around 14-17 C (57-63 F) across much of the country May 11 to around 18-24 C (64-75 F) May 13-16.

Flooding remains a concern across parts of northern and central Ukraine due to fluctuating river levels caused by recent precipitation and snow melt. The peak of the spring flood season has passed in most river basins; however, around 550 houses remain submerged by floodwaters across parts of Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Roads connecting around 23 settlements in Chernihiv Oblast remain disrupted by flooding, and thousands of hectares of agricultural land have also been flooded.

As of May 11, the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center is maintaining red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) hydrological warnings for the middle Dnieper Basin in Cherkasy Oblast and orange hydrological warnings for the upper Dnieper and Desna basins in Chernihiv Oblast, the middle Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Poltava oblasts, and the lower Dnieper Basin in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhizhia oblasts. Yellow hydrological warnings are in place for the middle Dnieper and Desna basins in Kyiv Oblast. Extreme forest fire risk warnings have been issued across much of northern and central Ukraine, including Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, and Zhytomyr oblasts and Kyiv City. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Light rainfall forecast May 11-12 and May 15-16. Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 13-14 and May 17. Maximum daytime temperatures of 13-23 C (55-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 4-12 C (39-54 F).

• Luhansk: Light rainfall forecast May 11 and May 15-16. Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 12-14 and May 17. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-23 C (57-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-12 C (41-54 F).

• Donetsk: Light rainfall forecast May 11 and May 15-16. Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 12-14 and May 17. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-23 C (57-73 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-12 C (39-54 F).

• Mariupol: Light rainfall forecast May 11 and May 15-16. Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 12-14 and May 17. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-21 C (57-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-15 C (41-59 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 11-15 and May 17. Light rainfall forecast May 16. Maximum daytime temperatures 16-27 C (61-81 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-15 C (41-59 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy with little significant precipitation May 11-15 and May 17. Light rainfall forecast May 16. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-24 C (57-75 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-12 C (39-54 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light rainfall forecast May 11-13 and May 16-17. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 14-15. Maximum daytime temperatures 16-21 C (61-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-10 C (43-50 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast May 11-14 and May 16-17. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 15. Maximum daytime temperatures 16-22 C (61-72 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-10 C (43-50 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light rainfall forecast May 11 and May 14-17. Partly cloudy with no significant precipitation May 12-13. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-22 C (57-72 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-10 C (43-50 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of May 11, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange freeze warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for parts of Crimea. Yellow highwater level warnings are in place for parts of Rostov Oblast and yellow forest fire warnings for Voronezh Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
Following periods of sustained heavy rainfall, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports, and flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Context

Weather conditions are likely to continue to impact military operations in the region throughout spring. As temperatures rise and conditions become more conducive to operations, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive action. However, muddy conditions caused by a combination of thawing snow and spring rains will likely hamper cross-country mobility and limit the capability of armored and mechanized formations. Ground could become especially churned up in areas of intense military activity, further complicating the prosecution of protracted operations. These conditions, known by the Russian term Rasputitsa or the Ukrainian equivalent Bezdorizhzhia, typically provide a military advantage to defending forces due to the limits it places on offensive maneuverability; however, they can also be detrimental to defensive forces if resupply routes become limited due to the adverse conditions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring