Pakistan: Protests escalate in urban centers nationwide following arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan May 9 /update 3

Event

Protests by Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party supporters have escalated in multiple urban centers nationwide as paramilitary personnel from the Pakistan Rangers arrested PTI leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan in Islamabad May 9; Khan was arrested in connection with a corruption case. Protests have been reported in Islamabad as well as Faisalabad, Gujranwala, Karachi, Lahore, Mardan, Multan, Peshawar, Quetta, and Rawalpindi, with police clashing with protesters in multiple locations. In Lahore, protesters stormed the Army Corps Commander's residence in the Cantonment area, vandalizing the property. Protesters have also stormed the army headquarters in Rawalpindi, while in Quetta, army personnel used live fire to disperse protesters resulting in at least one fatality and several injuries.

In response to the protests, authorities have imposed Section 144 orders in Balochistan and Punjab provinces and in Islamabad. The orders prohibit unauthorized public gatherings of over four people and the carrying of arms - to prevent demonstrations.

Significant protests by PTI activists are likely on May 10, when Khan is scheduled to appear in court on charges relating to his arrest. Activists have not immediately publicized venue and timing details for rallies. However, given developments on May 9, protests are likely to carry significantly anti-military sentiment, and actions may focus on military and paramilitary installations and personnel. Other popular gathering spots include public squares, parks like Islamabad's Fatimah Jinnah/F-9 Park, stadiums, and other government offices, press clubs, transport hubs like metro stations, and prominent intersections. Large turnouts are also possible at events near Khan's Zaman Park residence in Lahore, as well as near government and court buildings in Islamabad.

Given the significant support the PTI enjoys, participation in any protests that occur in major cities is likely to be significant, possibly numbering in the thousands. Activists will almost certainly defy any security restrictions, prompting mass arrests and police action, and escalating the threat of clashes. Violence may break out quickly, especially if police use force to prevent or disperse gatherings. Arson and vandalism of public property and vehicles, shutdown strikes, as well as blockades of other major inter-city roads cannot be ruled out.

In addition to Section 144 orders, officials will likely implement precautionary security measures like security cordons, roadblocks, and pedestrian checks Clashes between police and activists cannot be ruled out. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely near rally venues. Enhanced restrictions, such as the localized suspensions of internet services, extension of Section 144 orders, or implementation of curfews, cannot be ruled out if significant violence occurs.

Context

Khan faces multiple lawsuits, mainly over alleged corruption during his prime ministerial term, as well as purported hate speech and violence during antigovernment rallies by his PTI party. PTI supporters allege his arrest by paramilitary forces is unlawful and part of a plot of political persecution.

Advice

Avoid all protests and roadblocks due to possible violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Plan accordingly for associated localized transport and business disruptions. Allow additional travel time in downtown areas in the coming days; exercise caution near government buildings and military installations and all concentrations of security forces. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks, especially in cities. Monitor trusted local media for updates on protest details, as organizers may announce or modify them at short notice. Heed all security and traffic advisories.