Pakistan: Opposition rallies planned nationwide through May 14 to intensify over Imran Khan's reported detention May 9 /update 2

Event

Ongoing protests by the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) party are certain to escalate nationwide as their leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan was reportedly arrested on May 9. PTI claims Khan was arrested during his appearance at an Islamabad court regarding bail applications. The party had called for rallies across the country through May 14 to denounce the almost certain deferment of the Punjab provincial assembly elections. Organizers have not immediately publicized venue and timing details for rallies. A few thousand people may join large events in cities like Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar, and Rawalpindi. Activists are likely to defy any security restrictions, prompting mass arrests and police action, potentially leading to clashes. Arson and vandalism of public property and vehicles, in addition to blockades of major inter-city roads cannot be ruled out.

Activists typically hold street marches and/or vehicle processions, as well as sit-in protests. Popular gathering spots include public squares, parks like Islamabad's Fatimah Jinnah/F-9 Park, stadiums, election commission and other government offices, press clubs, transport hubs like metro stations, and prominent intersections. Large turnouts are also likely at events near Khan's Zaman Park residence in Lahore, as well as near government and court buildings in Islamabad. Violence may break out quickly, especially if police use force to prevent or disperse gatherings.

Authorities will likely monitor any gatherings and may disperse overly disruptive crowds. Officials may implement precautionary security measures like security cordons, roadblocks, and pedestrian checks in sensitive areas like the Red Zone in Islamabad. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between supporters of rival parties, cannot be ruled out. Localized transport and business disruptions are possible near rally venues. Enhanced restrictions such as the localized suspensions of internet services cannot be ruled out if significant violence occurs.

Context

Although the Supreme Court has ordered polls in Punjab Province on May 14 to meet a constitutional deadline, review petitions continue amid stalled political negotiations. While all parties have agreed to hold provincial and general elections concurrently to cut costs, the ruling coalition under the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party maintains voting should occur in October instead. PTI continues to lead protests over the issue. Khan also faces multiple lawsuits, mainly over corruption, as well as hate speech and violence during antigovernmental rallies by his PTI party. Confirmation of his arrest and/or his prolonged detention without bail is certain to prompt violent protests across the country.

Advice

Avoid all protests and navigating roadblocks due to possible violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Plan accordingly for associated localized transport and business disruptions. Allow additional travel time in downtown areas through at least May 14; exercise caution near government buildings. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks, especially in cities. Monitor trusted local media for updates on protest details as organizers may announce or modify them at short notice. Heed all security and traffic advisories.