27 Feb 2023 | 03:36 AM UTC
Pakistan: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least March 2
Severe weather forecast across much of Pakistan through at least March 2. Possible flooding and associated disruptions.
Event
Adverse weather is forecast across much of Pakistan through at least March 2. As of early Feb. 27, the Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned that a weather system is forecast to enter the western parts of the country the evening of Feb. 28, track over northern and central Pakistan March 1, and persist over northern Pakistan through March 2.
Heavy rainfall, strong winds, thunderstorms, and snowfall in elevated areas are forecast over Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan administrative territories, as well as parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and far northern Punjab provinces Feb. 28-March 2. Light-to-moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms is forecast over most of the rest of Pakistan, including Islamabad Capital Territory, late Feb. 28-March 1.
The department has warned that strong winds and hailstorms could cause damage to infrastructure and standing crops, especially in Barani areas. Landslides are possible in hilly terrain across Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan administrative territories, as well as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Punjab provinces. Daytime temperatures are forecast to fall to 5-7 C (41-45 F). Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.
Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Avalanches are possible in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in affected areas. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
