Nigeria: Officials to deploy heightened security on polling day Feb. 25; political gatherings to persist /update 1

Event

Authorities will deploy at least 400,000 security personnel to secure polling stations across the country during the presidential election scheduled for Feb. 25; at least two security guards will monitor each polling unit nationwide. Disruptions to transport and businesses, and other services are almost certain on voting day. The US Embassy in Nigeria issued a security alert Feb. 13 indicating that authorities may restrict the movement of non-accredited vehicles 00:00-18:00 Feb. 25. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest.

Political gatherings and related activities are likely to persist even though the electoral campaign will officially end Feb. 23. Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near political party headquarters, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) offices, and government budlings. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible before, during, and after the vote, particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions, as witnessed during previous election periods. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related events are also possible ahead of and during the vote.

Context

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has completed his two constitutionally allowed mandates and has repeatedly committed to fair and peaceful 2023 elections. The main candidates are Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party, LP), and to a lesser extent Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP). Since 1999, only the APC and the PDP parties have ruled the country. Polls indicate tight electoral results, suggesting a potential run-off for the first time in Nigeria. Should a second round be necessary, it will be held within 21 days after the first round between the top two candidates.

The Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections will be held March 11. The electoral campaign runs until March 9.

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation, avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings as a precaution, and avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. Adhere to all instructions issued by the local authorities. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Exercise extreme cautious and refrain from nonessential activities across Nigeria Feb. 25.