India: Increased security likely ahead of and during Gujarat State assembly elections from Dec. 1

Event

Political rallies and increased security are likely in Gujarat State ahead of and during the assembly elections from Dec. 1. Voters will elect representatives to 182 seats in two phases. Polling for the Kutch, Saurashtra, and South Gujarat regions will occur Dec. 1, and other areas Dec. 5. Officials will declare election results Dec. 8. Increased security deployment and political gatherings are likely throughout the state in the run-up to, during, and immediately after the vote.

Multiple political parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and Indian National Congress (INC), have announced rallies from mid-November. The largest gatherings are likely in urban centers, such as Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, and Surat. High participation is also probable at addresses by top leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Likely event venues include stadiums and public grounds. Rallies will probably involve thousands of people. Authorities will almost certainly tighten security near all rally venues, especially those attended by prominent political leaders. Most campaign events will likely pass peacefully, though clashes between rival political groups cannot be ruled out.

Some parties may hold protests before and during the election, especially if there are allegations of irregularities. However, any unrest will probably be localized, as security forces will likely respond quickly to violent demonstrations. Clashes are possible, mainly if police forcibly try to disperse demonstrators. Localized transport disruptions may occur near protest venues, especially if protesters block roadways.

Advice

Prepare for increased security - potentially including roadblocks and identification checks - in Gujarat State through at least Dec. 8. Allow additional travel time on the polling day; confirm business appointments and transport reservations in advance. Exercise caution near political party offices, rallies, polling stations, security force checkpoints, and government buildings due to the potential for violence. If an unruly gathering forms, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe nongovernment building. Carry valid identification and heed instructions from security personnel.