Philippines: TD Megi tracking northwestwards in the Visayan Sea as of early April 11; landfall likely over Biliran Province early April 12. /update 3

Event

Tropical Depression Megi (known in the Philippines as Agaton) is tracking northwestwards in the Visayan Sea as of early April 11, following landfall over eastern Leyte Province late the previous day. Megi first made landfall over Calicoan Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar Province, early April 10. As of 11:00 PHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 489 km (304 miles) southeast of Manila.

Forecast models indicate the system will turn to track east-northeast before making landfall over the western coast of Biliran Province early April 12. After landfall, Megi is likely to track east across Samar and Eastern Samar provinces before exiting into the Philippine Sea early April 13. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Government Advisories
Philippine officials continue to warn of moderate to heavy rains over Sorsogon, Masbate, Romblon, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, northern and central Cebu, including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, northern Negros Oriental, northern Negros Occidental, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Antique, and Guimaras provinces April 11. Light to moderate rain is forecast over the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region, as well as Dinagat Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Quezon provinces over the same period. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) 1 is in effect for Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Eastern Samar, Samar, Northern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, northeastern Cebu including Camotes Island, and eastern Bohol provinces.

Additionally, severe (second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) general flood advisories are in place for the Bicol Region, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Mimaropa, and Western Visayas regions. Moderate general flood advisories are in effect over Caraga and Northern Mindanao regions. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Authorities have preemptively evacuated more than 4,500 people in the Caraga, Central Visayas, and Eastern Visayas regions. Reports also indicate more than 15,000 displaced people in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Caraga, Davao, and Northern Mindanao regions. Additional localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Due to heavy rain and flooding, authorities declared a state of calamity for Davao de Oro Province and the Municipality of Cateel in Davao Oriental Province April 8 and for Trento Town in Agusan del Sur Province April 10. At least one person died in floodwaters in Davao de Oro Province April 6. Rescue operations are ongoing due to a landslide in Baybay City, Leyte Province, burying five people. Reports indicate damage to at least 47 houses in Northern Mindanao Region and around 67 roads and four bridges in Davao De Oro, Misamis Oriental, Surigao del Sur, and Agusan del Sur provinces. More than 2,300 people are also stranded at ports across the Visayas and Mindanao areas due to hazardous sea conditions.

Authorities have suspended work and classes in portions of Leyte, Southern Leyte, Eastern Samar, and Biliran provinces in Eastern Visayas Region, Cebu Province in Central Visayas Region, and Albay Province in Bicol Region April 11 due to heavy rain.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region, such as Francisco Bangoy International Airport (DVO), Daniel Z. Romualdez Airport (TAC), and Laguindingan Airport (CGY), and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration