Myanmar: Pro-democracy activists likely to stage further demonstrations nationwide on Martyr's Day July 19

Event

Pro-democracy activists will likely stage further demonstrations on Martyr's Day July 19 to commemorate the 1947 assassination of General Aung San and other leaders of the independence movement. The largest protests will likely occur in Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw. Demonstrations are also likely in other major cities such as Bago, Dawei, Monywa, Myeik, Myitkyina, Sittwe, and Taunggyi. Possible demonstration sites include government buildings and prominent intersections, monuments, and parks. Hundreds to thousands of people will probably participate in any action.

Authorities will likely increase security at protest locations. Localized transport and business disruptions are probable during any protest; activists may launch roadblocks by parking cars in the middle of streets. Pro-government groups may stage counterrallies near any demonstrations. Clashes between pro-democracy activists and security forces or between opposing groups of activists are likely. Officials may disrupt telecommunication networks in anticipation of or as a response to any large or disruptive gatherings.

Context

Military personnel detained several senior National League for Democracy (NLD) members, including Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, on charges of election fraud Feb. 1, the day that parliament members were to take up their seats. The NLD won at least 396 seats in the national Parliament (Pyidaungsu Hluttaw) in the 2020 general election to retain power. Opposition parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), claim that irregularities occurred during the election. However, the allegations lack significant supporting evidence, and the Union Election Commission has repeatedly denied the claims. International observers have also rejected the allegations. The junta declared a year-long nationwide state of emergency, vowing to hold a credible election and hand over power to a new government. Aung San Suu Kyi remains detained indefinitely and faces multiple charges, including election fraud, sedition, and the alleged violation of COVID-19 restrictions. Demonstrations against the military coup and fatal clashes between protesters and the military (Tatmadaw) continue to occur across Myanmar.

Advice

Avoid any protests July 19 as a precaution. Monitor local developments, especially protest plans, closely, as organizers may not announce details in advance. If a demonstration forms nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building, and stay away from windows. Shelter in place and avoid all unnecessary movements if operating in locations where demonstrations are taking place. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.