Mexico: TS Enrique tracking northwest in the Pacific Ocean June 28; landfall likely near San Jose de Cabo on June 30 /update 5

Event

Tropical Storm (TS) Enrique is tracking northwestward in the Pacific Ocean off the western coast of Mexico, late June 28. As of 21:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 325 km (205 miles) southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Enrique is forecast to continue tracking in a northwesterly direction, weaken further, and make landfall as a tropical storm east of San Jose de Cabo early June 30. After landfall, Enrique will track northwestward across Baja California Sur State, weaken and transition into a post-tropical cyclone with tropical depression strength winds by late June 30. Enrique will likely dissipate over far western parts of the state by late July 1. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of 21:00 MDT June 28, a tropical storm watch is in effect between Cabo San Lucas and Los Barriles.

Officials are likely to issue warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Hazardous Conditions
Tropical Storm Enrique will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas in western Mexico through at least July 1. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) are likely over Colima and coastal sections of Jalisco State. Locally higher totals of 46 cm (18 inches) are possible in areas affected by persistent bands of thunderstorms. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days.

Prolonged sea swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding if the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, Tropical Storm Enrique could produce damaging wind gusts, resulting in power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least July 1 in coastal areas of western Mexico. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane or tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Mexican Meteorological Service (Spanish)