Ethiopia: Rebel Tigray Defense Force reportedly takes control of Tigray regional capital Mekelle on June 28

Event

Rebel troops from the Tigray Defense Force (TDF) reportedly entered and took control of the Tigray regional capital Mekelle late June 28 after Ethiopian government forces allegedly abandoned the city. Preliminary information also indicates that the government in Addis Ababa has declared a unilateral ceasefire in Tigray. The development follows a recent escalation in hostilities between the TDF and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). The administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has as yet made no official statement concerning the situation in Mekelle.

Despite the apparent rebel success, Mekelle, and the Tigray region in general, will almost certainly suffer from continued instability over the coming months. Further hostilities remain likely and a future ENDF attempt to retake the city cannot be ruled out. Severe damage to infrastructure may lead to prolonged utility and communications disruptions; hospitals and other emergency medical providers, including ambulance services, could be significantly hampered in their ability to operate. TDF authorities could implement strict security measures, including restrictions on communications, curfews, or bans on public gatherings. Spontaneous or planned demonstrations in response to the rebel capture of Mekelle are possible. Authorities will most likely move quickly to disperse any gatherings that may materialize.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to the Tigray Region until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted for attack, including power stations, as well as media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Tigray should liaise with trusted contacts. Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If traveling is unavoidable, do so in a convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.