Lebanon: Anti-government protests and strikes likely to continue nationwide through late June /update 5

Event

Anti-government demonstrations and strikes will likely continue across Lebanon through at least late June. Most demonstrations are against government corruption, economic mismanagement, and delays in the investigation into the Beirut port explosion. Conditions continue to deteriorate amid the impasse in the formation of a new government. The ongoing political deadlock has further delayed long-awaited reforms and exacerbated the country's political and economic crisis, increasing the potential for civil unrest. The Lebanese pound has lost nearly 90 percent of its value since widespread protests first erupted in October 2019. The pound’s collapse has strained the government's limited resources, raising concerns over dwindling subsidies and the capabilities of the country’s security services.

Demonstrations, sit-ins, strikes, and roadblocks will almost certainly continue across the country, including in Beirut, Sidon, Tripoli, and Tyre. Prominent rally sites include public squares, government buildings, and city centers. In Beirut, protests will likely continue to materialize at the Port of Beirut, the Ministry of Justice, Riad el-Solh Road, Martyrs' Square, and near the government palace. Demonstrators may burn tires and sporadically barricade main roadways during protests, prompting ground travel disruptions. Transport disruptions and strikes could also result in further commercial disruptions. Security forces will almost certainly continue to monitor and respond to all protests and roadblocks. Clashes between security forces and protesters are likely if protesters ignore police orders or are overly disruptive.

Protesters have engaged in rioting and acts of vandalism against public and private property. Protesters are particularly frustrated with banks and other financial institutions, which have imposed capital controls on withdrawals and foreign transfers. Demonstrators have previously targeted banks with improvised incendiary devices, and additional similar incidents remain possible. Periodic bank closures in response to the demonstrations have been occurring throughout Lebanon; further bank closures could occur and will likely result in low cash supplies at ATMs.

Context

Lebanon has been without a fully functioning government since Prime Minister Hassan Diab resigned in the aftermath of a major explosion at the Port of Beirut that killed at least 200 people and wounded some 6,000 others in August 2020. Diab's government is currently acting in a caretaker capacity pending the formation of a new government. However, Lebanese political parties have thus far failed to overcome the endemic deadlock. Politicians nominated former Prime Minister Saad Hariri to the premiership in October 2020. Hariri has vowed to form a cabinet of nonpartisan specialists to pass urgent reforms; however, the government currently remains at an impasse despite over seven months of negotiations.

Lebanon is currently mired in its worst crisis since its 1975-1990 Civil War. Protesters continue to demand the resignation of Lebanon’s entire ruling elite and an overhaul of the confessional government structure, which distributes political power according to sect. They claim that this system has only benefitted political elites and encourages a lack of accountability. Over half of Lebanon’s population lives below the poverty line, and many businesses have struggled to stay afloat amid the economic meltdown and COVID-19 pandemic. Major economic and political reforms will be required to help reverse the crisis, unlock international financial assistance, and address the demands of the protesters. However, reforms do not appear to be imminent due to continued government dysfunction.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts regarding protest sites, and maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for localized clashes or other security incidents. Allow significant extra time to reach destinations in city centers in Lebanon until the protests abate. Do not attempt to pass through protester roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Be alert for residual debris and sharp objects if driving on previously blocked roads. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement officers. Reconfirm business appointments.