India, Pakistan: Cyclonic Storm Tauktae makes landfall in Gujarat State, late May 17 /update 6

Event

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tauktae continues tracking northward in the Arabian Sea, off the western coast of India, May 18. As of 07:30 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 165 km (103 miles) west-northwest of Surat, Gujarat State. The system made landfall near Saurashtra in southern Gujarat State late May 17. Following landfall, the system has rapidly weakened into a severe cyclonic storm and will further weaken as it moves over Gujarat and southern parts of Rajasthan State.

Tauktae has already impacted several areas. The storm is bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds, mainly to Maharashtra and Gujarat states. At least 14 people have died and over 24. Reports indicate that the storm damaged more than 3000 structures in the impacted states; additional damage is likely. Gujarat's Ahmedabad, Surat, and Vadodara airports are suspending operations through at least 13:00 May 18; Rajkot Airport will close through May 19. Extensions are possible. Indian officials have evacuated hundreds of thousands of people from high-risk areas along the western coast; affected locations include parts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Gujarat, and Maharashtra states, and the union territories of Daman and Diu, as well as Lakshwadeep.

Government Advisories
As of May 18, officials in India have issued various warnings for adverse weather conditions in the country's western states. As of 0830 IST, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) maintains a cyclone warning for Gujarat and Diu. The department issued warnings for heavy rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan and strong wind warnings for Maharashtra and Gujarat through May 18. Officials have advised that damage is possible in several areas of Gujarat, including Ahmedabad. Light to moderate rainfall is also likely in the northern states of Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.

Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of isolated heavy rainfall and wind gusts of up to 60 kph (37 mph) in Tharparker, Umerkot, Sanghar, and parts of Badin districts through May 19. It has also warned rough sea conditions during this period and advised fishers against venturing out to sea. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm is likely to bring further heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of western India and far southeastern Pakistan over the coming days. Sustained heavy rains could trigger further flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department