Nigeria: Armed group issues threat Feb. 23 over attacks in Lagos and Abuja

Event

The Supreme Egbesu Liberation Fighters armed group issued a warning Feb. 23 that it would conduct attacks in Lagos and Abuja, Nigeria, due to the government's perceived failure to improve conditions in the Niger Delta region. The group has also threatened to attack onshore and offshore oil facilities in the Niger Delta region.

Despite the group's statement, the threat of attacks by militants in Lagos and Abuja remains low. Armed groups in the Niger Delta region, the remnants of former militant organizations, currently have limited capabilities to carry out operations in both cities. However, incidents and attacks in rural areas of the Niger Delta region cannot be discounted. Attacks on isolated oil platforms, as well as processing facilities, have been conducted by militant groups in the region in the past, and a resumption of militant violence in the area will likely follow this pattern. Attacks on vessels and riverine suburbs of large cities and towns are also possible.

Groups such as the Supreme Egbesu Liberation Fighters may also resort to piracy and kidnapping, which both pose a high threat to operations and travel in the Niger Delta and the adjoining Gulf of Guinea.

Context

It is possible that the recent threats are an attempt to elicit concessions from the Nigerian government and companies operating in the identified area. Dozens of armed groups, including pirates, criminals, and former militant factions, operate in the Delta, and groups have been known to use the threat of attacks to negotiate settlements. The threat of attacks comes during a worsening of Nigeria's economic climate due to low global oil prices and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Advice

Monitor for updates on the evolving threat environment. Plan accordingly for short-term security-related disruptions, which could occur with little-to-no warning.