Venezuela: Anti-government rally planned for July 9; violence likely

Event

An anti-government  protest rally is expected to take place in  Caracas on Sunday, July 9 to mark 100 days of unrest. The rally is expected to gather at Avenida Francisco de Mirance, in Chacaito area at 11.00 (local time). The opposition has also called for rallies to be held in other urban areas, though have not released specific details. Violent clashes between protesters and security forces are likely. Expect increased security measures and traffic disruptions around any demonstrations.

Context

Leopoldo Lopez, a prominent opposition leader, was released from a military prison on  July 8, to serve the remainder of his 14-year sentence under house arrest; it is unclear if his arrest will appease opposition supporters over the coming weeks. On July 3, Venezuelan opposition parties called for an unofficial plebiscite to take place on Sunday, July 16, to determine whether citizens wish presidential elections to move forward in late 2018. Additionally, the plebiscite will question whether the armed forces should "restore constitutional order," understood by many as a call for a coup d'état against the Maduro regime. Protests are likely and a potentially violent governmental response is possible in response to the planned plebiscite.

Violent and often deadly clashes between protesters and security forces continue to occur on a near-daily basis in Venezuela, most notably in the capital city of Caracas. At least 75 people have been killed and 1500 more injured due to social unrest since the beginning of the current wave of anti-government protests began in early April of this year. The vast majority of the victims have been killed by security forces, who have repeatedly been accused of excessive use of force, and the situation continues to escalate with no resolution in sight. Pro-government militias are also reportedly behind some of the violence.

These developments follow on a long series of progressively worsening crises affecting the restive country in recent months and years, including a breakdown of the democratic system, major shortages of gasoline, medications, food, and other basic necessities, an alarming spike in rates of violent crime, massive inflation and economic recession, and a resurgence of disease. Protesters regularly demand early elections, the resignation of President Nicolás Maduro, the release of political prisoners, and humanitarian assistance from the government.

Advice

Individuals in Caracas and other Venezuelan cities are advised to limit movements, to strictly avoid all protests and roadblocks due to the likelihood of violence, and to closely monitor the situation.